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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (55348)	11/24/1999 11:09:00 AM
From: paul feldman	Respond to of 95453

Slider Your analysis of FGH is probably right on. However, FGH is the "go to yard","the yard of choice". Your words.You always discount this. Whatever pie is to be split, I feel their percentage will be greater. There is and will be work. Maybe I'm wrong,but I don't see anyone making fantastic profits in this sector at the moment.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (55348)	11/24/1999 11:22:00 AM
From: SargeK	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

From a YAHOO Poster and a Response to Slider messages.yahoo.com “fight the bubble psychology by: bmillan 11/24/1999 10:25 am EST Msg: 292 of 294 FHG is a stock with realistic chance to triple within 18 months. that is not 'dead money', that is a fabulous rate of return! be patient. current myth (bolstered by two year's experience of the Internet sector) holds that investors should expect returns of 10 percent a week. ridiculous! forget the hype. everything regresses to the mean. 10 percent is a good average return for a YEAR. today's market (especially the IPO first day pop's for stocks with no earnings) is a classic sign of an aging bull market. at the very end, the most speculative stocks are the last to stop rising. oil and oil service is not only the best sector to be right now, it has the potential to be a refuge when the larger market actually drops next year and high tech investors are down 20 percent or more for the entire year. buy and hold OSX for at least a double. trade them a bit perhaps for day to day fun (if you like that sort of thing and have the experience to do it), but don't worry about minor bumps in the road. IMHO.” FWIW - Slider: “... my .02” You're reading my mind again. That is exactly what I think its worth. Slider: “still heavy short interest” Fact is short interest has declined over the past month from 2.759m shares to 1.877m shares (per Barrons). Slider: “I am not going to argue with anyone about the ultimate necessity of newbuilds for deepwater; but the timeframe and the environment for the financial feasibility for such construction to occur - seems to be totally ignored by folks here imho.” You (like others) continue to ignore the lead time for building a deep water semisubmersible. Capex is being increased in light of continued uptrend in the underlying commodities. This money will be flowing into this sector sooner than expected. Many expected orders were merely delayed (according to J.L. Holloway). I believe him. It is your prerogative not to. Slider: “My thought is that RIG will virtually have to be about a $50 stock before FGH can be a $15-20+ stock...so if you believe in deepwater nearterm - why not play RIG vs. FGH !?!?!?!” What's wrong with playing them both. Works for me. Slider: “Maybe I am wrong”. That also works for me. Happy Thanksgiving SargeK

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (55348)	11/24/1999 11:59:00 AM
From: SargeK	Respond to of 95453

One final post for today Slider: "What possible factors, or events can drive FGH in the nearterm ?" 1. A resolution favorable to FGH regarding the Ocean Rig Dispute. 2. Sudden activation of delayed, but "expected" orders. 3. A decision on "Millennium S.A." financing. (which is expected this quarter with only 1 month remaining) 4. A concerted effort by FGH/IR to effect widespread UPDATE of the erroneous data which pervades the WEB. 5. A real (long awaited) Road Show by J.L. to proclaim the merits of the new Friede Goldman Halter, Inc. 6. Press releases relating the resolution of any or all the above may have immediate and profound impact on the stock price. If such releases or released after hours or on holidays or weekends; it will leave many independent investors standing on the sidelines. The stock could easily gap up 50% on Instinet before the general public knows what caused it. Finally, except for day traders, it makes little difference for many investors whether the spike (when it comes), occurs in December, March or July - as long as it happens. SargeK

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (55348)	11/24/1999 2:50:00 PM
From: upanddown	Respond to of 95453

Still massive fleet of stacked offshore rigs...especially jackups Slider, the jackup market in the gulf is rapidly tightening. From Oceandril.... Premium jackups (250 ft+) 54 drilling, 1 ready-stacked, 1 undergoing modifications 150 ft+ jackups - 95 drilling, 5 ready-stacked, 2 undergoing modifications A lot of operators may not want the low-end stuff because of various deficiencies. I find 300 ft jackups drilling in 30 ft of water. That tells me they need the other capabilities of a premium jackup besides rated water depth. Its true that there are 18 coldstacks (mostly FLC and DO) but they are not being actively marketed. If there were immediate plans to utilize them, why haven't they been moved to ready status? Rusting hulks? Stripped for parts? That one premium jackup available tells me that the market is a lot tighter than raw utilization rates would indicate. With these prices and the end of the hurricane season, I don't see why we can't have a December like the last month (up 14%). If so, there will be very little available. JMO. John

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (55348)	11/26/1999 11:25:00 AM
From: SargeK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

FGH vs RIG ? Slider: “My thought is that RIG will virtually have to be about a $50 stock before FGH can be a $15-20+ stock...” First, when the CAPX bucks stored pouring into the fabs, many FGH followers and analysts anticipate a rise to $30.+ (likely within 18 months). I wont argue that point. I'll use your $20 as a mid term achievable price. Rig is presently 29. If Rig goes to $50. That represents a 72.4% gain. FGH is presently 9, if it goes to $20, that represents 122.2% gain. TIA. >g< SargeK