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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shasta23 who wrote (24440)	11/25/1999 4:54:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 69808

Stefan, >>Sorry to hear about the RHAT "fundamental short". Thanks, I actually made out alright overall as the VERT profits were more than the RHAT loss. I didn't have to sell the VERT, I could have covered from cash, but I have been trying to get to a more neutral position right and not commit any new funds. The absolute loss was not insignificant, but I learned a long time ago not to risk more than a small portion of my capital in any one position. Money management is what keep you in the game long term. It is a force of habit from when I was only an investor, but I have always been psychologically prepared to take a 100 percent loss on any fundamental position. I have learned to not take it personally most of the time. The "fundamental" stop loss, plus the new trading range took me out of the position. I will probably get another chance to short in January when the Caldera IPO comes out and the share lock up expires. I don't feel I have to get even here though. If the technicals are right and the scenario looks like it will play out properly I will re-short higher up. The direction looks up for now though. I agree that the retail investor seems to be in control right now. The block trading on some of the high flyers is actually quite low considering the amount of volume and the volatility of some of the stocks. It can make for some pretty erratic trading. The markets are behaving fairly orderly considering the number of non-seasoned traders in the market. The break of the DJUA to a new yearly low in addition with the weakness in the DJTA is turning me cautious here. The momentum and money flow into the mutual funds still looks positive here as do many of my techncial indicators, but the fundamentals eventually catch up to the technicals. The DJUA is signaling higher interest rate here a few months down the road and I have learned to respect that. The current momentum can go on for a long time though. I recently saw one target og 1600 for the SP500. Wow! On your trading break, there is nothing wrong with trading less epsecially with you have had a good or reasonable year. Knowing when to stop is just and important as knowing when and what to trade. You can't enjoy all the gains if you can't hold on to them. I think most people have had a good year, it will be interesting to some how much of those gains they still have 6 months down the road. Enjoy the holday.