Dataquest projections for 2nd half '99.....If you want to read the tables (they are useful) I would go to the link.
cdg.org
Dataquest Increases 1999 U.S. Handset Market Estimate; CDMA Leads Growth
Dataquest's second quarter 1999 review of the U.S. mobile handset market confirmed that the strong first quarter results we reported were not a fluke. Table 1 shows Dataquest's latest results driven out of the second quarter subscriber data and channel checks that we perform each quarter to measure handset sell-through to end users. Based on that primary data collection, Dataquest has increased its 1999 U.S. handset forecast. Table 1 shows the original forecast and compares that data to the new projections.
By technology segment, the largest percentage increase in Dataquest's estimates came in the GSM 1900 space. Primarily, this is in recognition of the fact that operators deploying those networks have finally become competitive in the marketplace. The CDMA segment had the largest raw increase, with 2.9 million handsets added to the Dataquest forecast. With Sony's early and perhaps premature exit from the market, handset vendors with CDMA products are finding demand for their products stronger than ever, while pricing pressures do not appear to be far beyond the expected. TDMA is tracking close to Dataquest's expected values.
Table 1
U.S. Handset Market Update: Revised versus Original Forecast (Thousands of Units) Q1/99 Actual Q2/99 Actual H1/99 Actual H2/99 Projection New 1999 Projection Original 1999 Forecast Change (%)
AMPS 2,022 2,297 4,319 4,642 8,961 7,802 15
TDMA 2,784 3,110 5,894 7,455 13,349 12,658 5
CDMA 3,191 3,777 6,968 9,299 16,267 13,377 22
GSM 1,010 1,146 2,156 2,846 5,002 3,708 35
Total 9,008 10,330 19,337 24,241 43,578 37,545 16
Note: Exludes iDEN
Source: Dataquest (September 1999)
Table 2 shows the percentage change from the 1998 actual handset shipments reported by Dataquest and compared to the 1999 update. AMPS, as a segment, has about half the market share that it commanded in 1998, but it has not declined as quickly as expected given the change noted in Table 1. However, Table 2 clearly illustrates how important a presence in CDMA is to maintain supremacy in the U.S. market: At 37 percent of the market, it is the largest addressable market and is growing rapidly.
Table 2
U.S. Handset Market Share Update, 1998 and 1999 1998 Share (%) 1999 Share (%)
AMPS 40 21
TDMA 28 31
CDMA 23 37
GSM 10 11
Total 100 100
Note: Exludes iDEN
Source: Dataquest (September 1999)
Dataquest Perspective
Vendors with a strong CDMA product offering are most likely to benefit from the changes in the U.S. handset market noted in this Alert. Motorola has created momentum in the CDMA space by coming to market with a sound product, while Nokia has struggled a bit with its tri-band CDMA rollout. Also, Audiovox continues to impress Dataquest with its unique CDMA sourcing strategy, which is enhancing its competitiveness in the overall marketplace. Samsung, LG, and Denso, all with new CDMA products due out in the next few months, are likely to see a surge in the fourth quarter 1999 timeframe if those products meet expectations.
By Bryan Prohm and Matt Hoffman |
