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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Green who wrote (35200)	11/25/1999 12:51:00 AM
From: The Prophet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

For Don, Why RMBS is QCOM and not IOM: 1. RMBS is a pure IPR which will licenses its technology to each of the key RAM manufacturers. 2. INTC is committed to RMBS, as evidenced by its financial stake in the company, its roadmap going forward, and the need to drive consumers towards faster CPUs. 3. DELL, the only really important PC company, has indicated that it intends to be 50% RDRAM by mid-2000. The other top boxmakers are also all producing RDRAM-based computers. 4. RDRAM scales to much faster speeds than DDR, and although RDRAM may initially be more expensive than conventional RAM, the price differential will dissipate as the product ramps up. Additionally, RDRAM should be heavily entrenched by the time DDR is even fully available for PCs. 5. RMBS has yet to even try to market its product through any form of advertising. Just wait and see once the product is available in quantities and they do so. 6. Streaming media and broadband will drive the need for faster RAM, just as RDRAM is reaching critical price points. 7. The stock is fundamentally undervalued, when measured against any reasonable metric of expected sales. For example, Dataquest estimates the DRAM market alone at $65 billion in 2002, with RDRAM at 50% share. At a 1.5% royalty, this means $65 billion * 50% * 1.5% = approx $500 million in royalties. Take away 30% in tax = $350 million in royalties. With 24 million shares, we have $15 in earnings. With a modest 20 p/e, that's a $300 stock. None of these projections include non DRAM products, nor do they factor in the possibility that the entire DRAM market goes RMBS, as it very well might. Enjoy the ride. Prophet

To: Don Green who wrote (35200)	11/25/1999 12:24:00 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi Don Green; I have a comment on Rambus technology for the more technologically literate types... Rambus is about sending information to and from a memory. The technology is supposed to provide a better design in terms of bandwidth per dollar. (To say that a technology provides more bandwidth doesn't help. It has to provide more overall performance per dollar to be adopted. Excessively expensive technology doesn't get adopted.) While the bandwidth and latency of main memory is important, it is not nearly as important as the bandwidth and latency of cache. If Rambus is such a great technology, how come exactly zero companies have adopted the technology for cache memory? The new fast SRAMs are coming out in very wide widths with very high speeds. If IC pins are so expensive, how come they haven't reduced the pin count on the chips that connect to cache by using Rambus technology? My answer is that the only reason Rambus has made the progress it has is because Intel has forced it. But the progression of Intel's support has been steadily down hill. That Rambus will remain a niche technology forever is fairly clear to a lot of industry observers. That said, yesterday's price action had the appearance of being a reversal to me. On the other hand, it has been my observation that the selling in RMBS has been institutional in nature, and the institutional traders are on vacation for yesterday and tomorrow. So my prediction for the price is that Friday will be a beautiful up day, while the stock resumes its fall on Monday. Of course, I've been very much wrong in the past, and will continue to make incorrect predictions in the future. -- Carl