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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: werefrog who wrote (34830)	11/27/1999 12:59:00 PM
From: Valley Girl	Respond to of 74651

I'm not that skillful. More of a month trader if anything, but the bulk of my money's just sitting in long-term positions. I did buy almost every dip of MSFT this year, but I wasn't as sharp-eyed as you when finding the exit; I kept waiting for a sustained thrust above 100 which never came. I don't see much of a buying opportunity here. I prefer to have the risk/reward ratio extremely skewed in my favour (e.g. PMSW's buy of CSCO at 16 P/E). I don't share John D's enthusiasm for a protracted legal battle; I still believe the optimistic view here is that there will be a settlement. If it comes, the stock will finally break out above 100. As a trading strategy, I'd rather buy the breakout. Most stocks pause at some point when they break out to new highs while sellers that have been waiting to score bail out, then the stock continues higher. Although it runs counter to every instinct in me to buy a stock at a high, this has worked for me many times; I held my nose and bought CSCO at 78, which so far appears to have been a smart move. Fact is MSFT is more likely to run to 120 than to sink back to the 90s if it breaks out above 100 on good news. I'll miss 10-15 points of possible upside, which I'm happy to leave to more courageous traders, but I'll miss the downside if settlement talks stall and we get hit with the "Findings of Law". Since I don't know which way it's going to play out, seems a whole lot safer to sit on my hands. Oops, it's near 10 and time for the health club to open, bye for now!