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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Craig Bartels who wrote (9017)	11/25/1999 8:33:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78601

Can you say ASBESTOS. That put most of the companies materially involved out of business. I have nothing against MO as a company, but I do not like investing in companies where what you can see is largely irrelevant because of potential off balance sheet liabilities.

To: Craig Bartels who wrote (9017)	11/26/1999 3:55:00 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78601

Craig Bartels: re: MO. I will look at your decision from a different way. We know the pundits have two extremely divergent views on MO. It is either very undervalued based on its components and/or based on the fact that any potential legal awards or agreements will either be "reasonable" or tied up in courts or appealed. On the other side, "they say" it's not possible to scope out in advance what the various judges/juries/lawmakers' decisions/effects will ultimately be. The government bodies seem to be intent on taking the present, maybe also past profits of MO for themselves. It is possible that MO could seek bankruptcy protection or otherwise cause shareholders much pain and grief. Therefore, I ask, why are you trying to make a buy or pass decision on the stock of this company? What additional information that is not already generally known do you have or ruling reason would you have to tilt your decision to a buy? Your profile says you are 23 years old with 6 years investing experience, using an aggressive style- part long term and part day trading. And you want to have a million dollars in 7 years. So I wonder why you would ever be interested in a stock like MO. To day trade for a few points? That might very well work - esp. from these levels - but then why would you care about the opinions of value investors here? On the other hand, if you were to be a long term holder-- do you really think a stock like MO--where you would be investing without having any way of putting the odds in your favor (you're not an attorney or in the tobacco business or financial analyst)and where (I am guessing here) you would have to put up some relatively big money from your portfolio (I am assuming here too) --- is a suitable stock for you? That is, I am guessing that if you were to buy MO, it'd be for more than a dinky number of shares, since I assume your portfolio has to grow substantially and rather quickly if you are to achieve your goal. If the decision to buy is for a few shares only or few dollars only, why bother. From what I can see (and I admit I might not be able to see too much -g-), it's not just a question of what's ultimately going to happen with MO at current stock levels, it's more an issue of whether this stock is suitable for someone who has the investment style and goals you've stated. My guess is the (long term) risk/reward and timeframe for MO to work out for you -- does not favor you. Pass on MO and go on. All imo, and I've been wrong many, many times before. Paul Senior

To: Craig Bartels who wrote (9017)	11/26/1999 5:56:00 AM
From: valueminded	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78601

Craig: Agree with other poster who said asbestos = bankruptcy. In this case, I fully expect the lawyers to pile on the judgements to the tobacco companies. I also fully expect those judgements to far exceed the expected earnings of those companies. Once this becomes proveable, which in my opinion is a matter of time, they declare bankruptcy, reorganize, wipe out the liabilities, and move offshore where most of their sales and profits are anyway. Basically, the common stock investor loses, the companies lose, the employess lose. Govnt pats itself on the back (ps you have to wonder what they have been doing with the taxes on cigarettes for the past decades anyway. billions upon billions) good investing.