To: Educator who wrote (17331 ) 11/27/1999 3:27:00 AM From: KW Wingman Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29970
AOL is similar to a Ponzi scheme IMO. They have flooded us with disks and then CD's. The idea is to get two people to sign up for every one who wises up and drops AOL. So far it doesn't matter how much this growth costs AOL. It may even go so far that the new sub does not generate positive cash flow for years. Marketing cost does not seem to matter. The stock market values the stock on the number of subs and the sub growth rate. I would have to say that AOL has been doing the right thing as far as marketing. IMO, One of these days this type of Ponzi scheme may be exposed for what it is. It may be when AOL's earnings growth slows because of the cost of replacing subs has gotten completely out of hand. If AOL stays at dial up speed, sub growth will slow, and then stop. AOL stock is then heading south. <I went to the local grocer and reached for a Field & Stream. Do you know what was enclosed with the magazine? One of those damn AOL disks! I just about crapped! It won't be long until we can't hide from them anymore! Did anyone find a disk inside their turkey?!!> I got a laugh out of that. Case had probably not considered stuffing the turkey with AOL CD's - Until he read your post. AOL has recently sent me a boxed TITANIUM all new version AOL 5.0. They have now increased the cost of the mailing by boxing the CD. As you can see I continue to want ATHM to have nothing to do with AOL. IMO, "dial up" AOL is like a ponzi scheme, a house of cards. That big AOL balloon may be deflated someday. The AOL house of cards is way overvalued. Not only that but that cry baby, sniveling Case pissed me off by crying to the regulators and anybody else who would listen. AOL needs broadband, broadband damn sure does not need AOL. AOL subs are ripe loose hanging fruit, just waiting to be harvested or to fall off the tree in the first wind.AOL subs will provide a nice source of converts to ATHM in the future. I want nothing to do with AOL. However, if AOL wanted to buy us and the price was high enough. I would want $200 per share minimum at the close of the deal. If the deal was in AOL stock and the stock ran up on the news, we would participate in the gain. If AOL stock fell, we would just have to get more ownership in AOL to make up for that loss so we get our minimum value. Regards, Wingman