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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Post_Patrol who wrote (55449)	11/26/1999 11:45:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Post Patrol: seriously on GLBL ... Actually; with it near $8 once again; wasn't trading & playing the $6-$8 game 3 times, or so - rather prudent ? Here we are; with the opportunity to buy it back at less than our peak sales prices; multiplied by the margin leverage and the number of times we traded it .... I can only hope that SII ESV UTI FLC & MRL behave for me as well as GLBL has ! GLBL is a nice "core" company to own; I'll start accumulating some on any weakness here; there is nothing in the immediate near term - other than a sector breakout rally to move it out of range... the move here was a "relief" rally based on short covering and the positive reception by the Street on the merger not closing. Sadly; I wished it would have closed - better in the longrun and GLBL would have gotten an entre~ into the FPSO niche for the potential opening up of the GOM and leveraged their Intnl position... But, Dore will NOT pay too much for any asset. He will find another deal here, if not - GLBL is still in a great niche and undervalued here. Watching PGO for continued weakness here, FLC needs to come down a bit more.. if they don't - I'll wait; as the gap between fundamentals and value; between the driller/service stocks and the E&P's is simply too wide here. Also, the "real world" effect of the sustainability of $20-22+ crude here is more leveraged fundamentally to positively impacting the E&P's vs. the driller/service stocks - its a can't lose scenario imho. Also, as far as a bottom; the E&P's have written off the entire NG play here - $2 NG is priced in here - and many E&P's are fundamentally bottomed here; as they are selling for less than they did last fall with $12 Crude & $1.90 NG... The OSX conversely; has perhaps 15% downside for its bottom. The E&P's have had the "crude" story entirely discounted and the NG story has been totally abandoned - in NOVEMEBER !!!! - way, way, way too early to give up on the "Winter" story imho... I will make a ton of moolah here; the anomalous situation between the falling shareprices in allmost complete total divergence from crude prices and their own underlying fundamentals of cash flow, earnings & production is simply a once in a "cycle" opportunity. "THIS" is the buying opp for E&P's of what will ultimately be a multi-year cycle. To be able to buy these stocks at the same prices that we had during levels of $12 crude & $1.90 Nat Gas last fall; when their balance sheets have been repaired, their production is turning up, cap ex spending increases are perfectly timed to leverage into the peak of crude oil prices and when they have finally shown quarterly earnings reports that support the dramatic turnaround from last fall - is a GIFT HORSE BUYING OPP ! Funds have trimmed positions for the potential redemmptions from Y2K, tax loss sold, used their former E&P profits as currency to rotate into tech and given up on Winter ever arriving - all of these present tremendous opportunity to the individual investor who focuses not on market sentiment - but steadfastly on the story, the numbers, the fundamentals and the facts. While the OSX surely can move to 100 on a sentiment change and the next rally; - that's 25%. The E&P's have 50% upside, or twice that of the driller/service sector back to merely fair value imho. Closer to a fundamentally supported bottom, higher upside, more directly leveraged to the "crude oil" story - it's not even a choice here imho - E&P's are the "story" and the clear buys at these valuations.