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Strategies & Market Trends : REITS - Buying 1 - 2 weeks before going ex-dividend -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bob Rudd who wrote (1624)11/27/1999 9:24:00 AM
From: Richard Barron  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2561
 
Bob,
I agree with your assessment of the nursing home operators problems starting to be alleviated. I follow NHC closely also, as they haven't taken the same operating hits as most of the other operators.
I don't think ETT can increase the dividend near term even if GHV is believe to be a strong tenant as rates have climbed so they will have less cash flow than earlier. In addition, I don't know how many fees they have already paid just to get these loans, nor if they will pay more fees to leave early. Still, the $1.20 should be easily to maintain if GHV is operating in the black.
I believe Merrill was an underwriter. I remember when they put out a buy about 2-3 years ago on ETT when the stock was priced around 16-17.
If they were indicating such things in conversations with management, that is not exactly fair disclosure. Still, I'm glad to see the stock starting to show a basing formation. I'm waiting for a leader in the healthcare sector to lead the REITs out of the doldrums. Hotels aren't likely to lead, nor are the malls, with all the internet competition worries. The healthcare (HR, HCN, NHP) has many of the formerly strong leaders, showing up with new lows constantly. Either the problems aren't getting fixed, or no one cares (more likely scenario). If the problems are fixed, this is a tremendous long term buying opportunity for those looking for mid-teens returns (or 20%+ for ETT).
Richard