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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kjhwang who wrote (17334)	11/26/1999 2:09:00 PM
From: LLCoolG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

TCI, Looking at your points, they can be twisted however you want. In fact, from my experiences as a technically-orinented Generation X'er, and a very early AOL customer, I think you are dead wrong on some of your logic. The "low end" vs. "high end" is subjective and insignificant. As the Web grows, information becomes more easily available, people will be buying quality goods at the lowest possible prices wherever they are available. Nobody will pay $80 for a Ralph Lauren shirt from Nordstrom's when they can go to Joe's Shack Dot Com and get one for $40. Except old people. AOL certainly does need some other delivery media besides dial-up. Cable is probably very much in their best interest. I would never even insinuate that cable will definitively be the dominant Internet medium, but it is looking today like they and DSL are the way to go. And the DSL service providers like the RBOCs will not allow AOL to gain a foothold in that ISP market. Just look at what GTE is doing in the Northwest to comete with ATHM. AOL is unavailable, but with their current pricing structure, is cost prohibitive compared to GTE. And wireless is far behind the others right now. AOL has no lock on the young demographic. They may have achieved a cult status at the moment, because parents use AOL. When these kids get away from home, they will understand that sense of community, like IM's, chat rooms, and message boards, can be had for free without annoying advertisement windows through places like Yahoo. When they do, they will be mocked if they continue with AOL. My friends who currently have dial-up are getting laughed at, and more so if they give out an AOL e-mail address. It is becoming a stigma among Gen X'ers, rightly or wrongly. And the dependence upon monthly user fees may very well be evaporating. No argument. However, when the threat of Microsoft going to free ISP was looming a short time ago, AOL's stock price took a big hit, albeit a temporary one. If tha threat returns, that stock will not react well, perhaps again on a temporary basis. You will always have the technically-illiterate paying to use AOL, just like you have mindless people smoking cigarettes, experimenting with drugs, and blindly giving their money to "financial planners" who lump it into mutual funds where it is not put to optimal use for outrageous commissions. AOL is a great company, and also will probably continue to be an excellent stock which will give you 50% per year. But without cable or another viable broadband alternative that gives them a substantive entry into that arena, the joyride of the past 16 months is over, and it becomes Dell Part 2. Funny how that company has slid from the elite, despite a great balance sheet, great cash flows, and overall superb management. And also, for the record, I do not own, nor have I ever owned YHOO. I did own AOL for 20 months until last month. I bailed there at 130 to buy more ATHM at 37-39. Later! G