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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (55467)	11/26/1999 1:22:00 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Michael, sorry to say, nope. It is my view that oil consumption is so directly tied to the business cycle that it is forever destined to be "boom and bust". To me those words are just another way of saying "cyclical". It is also my view that THIS cycle will be of greater magnitude and duration than the '97 cycle. Consider how much OPEC would have to cut production to obtain prices even in the teens if the world or even just Asia was still mired in recession. It would sure have to be more than 7%. Having said that, I also believe it will be the LAST major upcycle in my life time. Come '10 my work shows that this worldwide economic cycle will peak out and the "Mother of all Depressions" will begin to set in. The US economy will peak first followed by Europe then Asia. Oil consumption will drop like a rock and many of the companies we discuss on this board will go bk. Tremendous fortunes will be made shorting them. But like Yogi says "It ain't over till it's over." And it ain't over. JMVVHO Bull

To: The Ox who wrote (55467)	11/26/1999 1:34:00 PM
From: MetalTrader	Respond to of 95453

let me say I've enjoyed the boards coherent, civilized and reasoned discourse for a long time...with minor distractions on occasion. couldn't help but raise my hand on the comment of a smoothing of the cyclical nature of the market...after twenty years of trading metals...it ain't going to happen. if you are going to be betting cycles this is a good place to learn. so i'll enjoy the cycles and continue to listen here and make my own judgements. the struggle will be to keep from going completely schizophrenic while waiting for OEI to react rationally and riding the sunw's and aol's into the clouds. mt