Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (34253)	11/26/1999 1:45:00 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Your scenario may be realized... I also added very heavily to my commodities futures portfolio today... in addition to being short the bonds as of today, I'm long cattle, hogs, bellies, cotton, copper, gold, soybeans, lumber, CRB index, and crude oil to round out the group..... all bought on the opening this morning for those markets that were open today... My Best Regards... GZ

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (34253)	11/26/1999 5:19:00 PM
From: LaVerne E. Olney	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

November 26, 1999 Market Comments by Don Hays This will not be one of my epistles, since I have to go out and try to work off some of that turkey and dressing. In fact, the audience for these comments is most certainly reduced by the holidays, so I don't think this is a great time to load up the few of you that are reading these comments. That is my excuse that I am using, and I'm sticking with it. It is obvious this morning that the beginning traits of the market that we discussed in our last two comments are continuing. A big blotch on this rally is showing up in the Financial stocks. So far since October of last year, there have been at least three prayers of the herd that have been stated as exciting new trends in the market that have proven to be nothing more than "dead-cat" bounces. The first two of these themes came along at about the same time, between April and June of 1999. These prayers were that finally the small caps were starting to play catch-up. The S&P 500 stalled out slightly while the Russell 2000 and value stocks did start to raise their head. The Russell 2000 has continued to move up, but even that has been very deceptive as studies show that it is being powered by those "no-earnings" stocks almost principally, while the typical Russell 2000 stock is still dramatically under performing. If you notice, the period that this "hope" was being espoused was the period when it appeared that the threat of rising interest rates was dramatically reduced. The second theme, somewhat related was that basic industry stocks that had been smothered in this mighty bull market were about to be major beneficiaries of the worldwide economic recovery that was being headlined, especially in Japan and Europe. Once again, the dead cat didn't bounce very high. Now the third theme appears to also have run out of steam, and that involves the recent strong "bounce" by the financial stocks. That "prayer" lost its momentum six days ago. The strong in the group have declined some, but the weak sisters have once again plummeted, almost back to their panic lows of mid-October. I always watch the comparative action of the New York Stock Exchange Composite index, and the NYSE Financial index. There have now been six days of the financials very significantly under performing the Composite index. But even with this, admittedly I am getting a little ahead of the price action of some of these stocks. The financials had blasted up from that October 15, 1999 bottom, and many broke out of promising bottom/consolidation patterns. Even this significant loss of momentum for the last six days straight has not yet violated those "break-out" levels. So watch those levels closely in the weeks ahead. All of these factors work together. I have always said that the stock market is the world's greatest barometer. It knows everything known to mankind. For instance, even though I believe the Internet bubble is very similar to the Biotech bubble that I mentioned in the last few days, as shown on the DecisionPoint.com web site, that does not dispel the message the market is giving on the Internet new era. That cannot be disputed. The Biotech phenomena could also not be disputed. The only thing that could be was whether all "xx"gen's of that time would prove to be the superstars of the future. They weren't. But as I look at a broad range of factors, I see new trends emerging in the currency, commodity, and interest rate environment. The biggie is probably the new strength in the yen/dollar, and especially the yen/euro. If this new weakness turns into a meltdown, that would be cataclysmic to the US and Euro traders who are borrowing in yen and buying in dollars and euros. This is probably even more dramatic for the euro than for the dollars, as many have been expecting the euro to finally emerge as a strong currency. It is now making new lows since its introduction the first of this year. It had tried to bounce from the previous July 12, 1999 low, but today's action has brought it back to new lows. There we go again, another bounce turns into a bust. The Hays Market Focus Advisory Group does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the report, nor does the Hays Market Focus Advisory Group assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice and are for general information only. Hays Market Focus Advisory Group, 2828 Old Hickory Blvd., Apt. 1808, Nashville, Tennessee 37221.