To: marc chatman who wrote (55479 ) 11/26/1999 4:17:00 PM From: Gary Burton Read Replies (1) | Respond to
Marc--Like the OSX, FLC may simply be doing a (ii) of C in here---ie a case can be made that the move off the $5ish low up to 12ish in May was Wave A (or 1) then B (or 2) down to sub-8 in June and from there it started on a long Wave C (or 3) by doing only the first part (i) to 16 and now it is trying to complete the (ii) part to or below 11.13--with much higher prices to come beyond 16 when (iii) gets going------That's the Bullish Alternative---The Bearish Alternative of course is that EITHER it completed an ABC from 5 to 16 and will now shock everybody by going to a new low--OR--it will go a bit beyond 16 in a "double zigzag" (ie 2 ABC's strung together, where we are near the end of the B of the second ABC)----Take your pick (vbg)------Chart wise, the long term picture of OSX should likely be keyed off of XOI (since OSX doesn't go back very far). What bothers me greatly about that chart is that it looks to me like the most recent sharp thrust up into last week was a 5th wave that 'failed' at 543 (ie it failed to take out the 548 Sept high).When one looks back many years, the impression given is that the Sept/Nov peak was the END of a Major Wave of cycle degree that had been going on for many years. IF correct, the worrisome thing about that is that the Correction of such long wave should then take much LONGER IN TIME than simply 2 months or so. Bottom line, I am not all comfortable with the XOI chart right now UNLESS it can quickly turn around and take out 543 (a positive sign) and then go above 548 (a very positive sign which might then imply materially higher prices. At the moment, I am inclined to doubt that it will be able to do that, which is a big reason why I am very cautious on energy right now, regardless of the news backdrop and a spike in crude.---so I'm watching 77.40 on the downside on OSX to signal potential trouble and 54/48 on the upside on XOI as key turning points.---my 2c---remember, near a top, no one rings the bell and most people are bullish and think that any 'dip' is a glorious buying opportunity. It has to be that way, since otherwise it wouldn't be a Top. The bear has to have the elevator stuffed with committed bulls before he decides it is time to take it down. And the only way to do that is to not telegraph that the up elevator is actually broken, so that the bulls will enter in the first place.....Put me down as highly cautious in here, regardless of spiking crude prices, the glory of rebounding cash flows in repairing balance sheets etc etc....I am NOT saying that I am now Bearish--just that I am far more cautious than most people on this thread as I am aware of the psychology around real tops. As they say-we shall see.
