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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (10097)	11/26/1999 7:40:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

If the Y2K fearmongers have been more successful than I think, then there will be inventory building happening this quarter. Working that inventory off may put a major drag on the economy during the ensuing months. At the very least it will slow down the growth rate temporarily for a quarter or 2. And that may be enough to put the fed on hold for the first half of next year. Then we have to wonder whether the fed will do anything with rates in the heat of an election campaign. FWIW, Ian

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (10097)	11/26/1999 10:42:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15132

B2B Tip of the Day: Get a copy of Business 2.0 magazine, September 1999 edition. It has the best article on B2B out there to date. It rocks.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (10097)	11/26/1999 11:15:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

U.S. inventories grow briskly in September WASHINGTON15 (Reuters) - U.S. businesses added to inventories in September at the strongest rate in six months, while sales declined, the Commerce Department said Monday. The strong pace of stockpiling may indicate some preparation for possible computer-related disruptions to deliveries at the end of the year, though most of that inventory-building is forecast to take place later in the fourth quarter. Inventories at manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers increased 0.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted $1,123.36 trillion in September after a 0.3 percent gain in August. The department said it was the biggest increase in overall inventories since a 0.5 percent rise in March. Lynn Reaser, an economist with Bank of America Private Bank in Jacksonville, Fla., said nine months of strong consumer spending in 1999 have left many businesses facing depleted inventories even without having to worry about Year 2000 computer problems. Retail inventories increased 0.3 percent to $360.24 billion in September after a 0.7 percent rise in August. Manufacturers' inventories gained 0.2 percent to $465.35 billion after falling 0.1 percent in August, while wholesalers' inventories jumped 0.7 percent in September to $297.77 billion after a 0.5 percent August rise. ''Wholesalers especially appear to be engaged in quite a buildup of inventories looking ahead to Y2K,'' Reaser said, ''But at the retailers' and manufacturers' levels it's likely that a good part of the addition reflects lean stocks from strong consumer spending already this year.'' Total business sales were down 0.2 percent in September to $842.34 billion, but that followed a big 1.2 percent increase in August. Auto dealers' sales eased to $63.33 billion in September from $64.62 billion in August. Consumer demand remains strong, despite some easing in new-car sales in recent months, so that inventory-building is expected to remain brisk throughout the balance of the year, which would add impetus to the economy's expansion. ''Inventories are going to be a positive factor for the economy for the balance of the year. I'm not looking for a sharp acceleration in fourth-quarter expansion because of inventory-building but for steady additional support,'' Reaser said. The ratio of inventories to sales, a measure of the supply on hand at businesses, held steady at 1.33 months' worth in September, the same as in August and the lowest level since the series began in 1980. 12:15 11-15-99