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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Green who wrote (35268)	11/27/1999 12:24:00 AM
From: Don Green	Respond to of 93625

DRAMs to See Double-Digit Growth Through 2002: IDC Japan November 26, 1999 (TOKYO) -- IDC Japan Ltd. said that while the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of microprocessors in value will be 1.8 percent on average, DRAMs will show a high growth rate of 21.9 percent for use in PCs through 2002. Akira Minamikawa, component semiconductor director of IDC Japan, unveiled the forecast in his speech entitled "Challenges to Digital Consumer Electronics and Japan-based Semiconductor Makers," at a press briefing in Tokyo on Nov. 17. The briefing was held by Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) Japan. SEMI is a worldwide organization of semiconductor equipment manufacturing companies. Microchip demand for PCs will rise 7.1 percent (CAGR) in value through 2002, and the US$35 billion market in 1999 will reach US$50 billion in 2002. In terms of components, DRAMs will achieve by far the highest growth of 21.9 percent on a CGAR basis. Other components will see modest growth -- 1.8 percent CGAR for microprocessors and 3.9 percent CAGR for core logic chips, according to Minamikawa. DRAMs will support the overall semiconductor demand for PCs in the coming years. Although PC shipments in units will continue to expand at a brisk pace, microprocessors (in value terms) will increase slowly because of the stronger effect of price reductions. Meanwhile, PC users are buying computers with enhanced memory capacities. DRAMs only account for about 6 percent of the total price of a PC, Minamikawa said, indicating that there's more room for DRAMs to grow in sales terms. A typical PC has about 90MB of memory at present, and that will expand to 1GB in about 2006. Some DRAM makers may exit the market and the number of DRAM makers will be reduced to about five, Minamikawa also said. (BizIT)

To: Don Green who wrote (35268)	11/27/1999 9:21:00 AM
From: John Stichnoth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Don, as you point your finger and giggle at people who are no longer long rambus, you should know two things, (1) they've kept an open mind, and (2) been frequenting the Gorillas and Kings thread, which is based on Geoffrey Moore's The Gorilla Game and related texts. In these books Moore makes a persuasive argument as to which tech companies will give the best returns (gorillas and kings, which are defined), and when to invest in them. The stocks that rise the fastest are those in the "tornado" (another defined term). He also makes the point that you do not invest in a company pre-tornado. That is where we are with Rambus, pre-tornado. So, any previous rambus longs, who are now gorilla-investing, undoubtedly have rambus on their watch-lists. They'll be back when gorilla-theory says they should be back. They'll miss part of the initial run-up, but will have avoided all the risk that we are dealing with. At least that's the idea. Hope that clarifies things a little. Best, JS