To: BigBull who wrote (55506 ) 11/27/1999 5:17:00 PM From: Gary Burton Read Replies (1) | Respond to
BB---I didn't say Wolunchuk was wrong. In fact, he will eventually be right in my view. What I said was that after a 5 wave sequence off the Low is complete, a larger retracement occurs. It's purpose is to partially retrace that particular 5 wave upsequence... After the end of such larger retracement, a SECOND 5 wave up sequence should begin that extends beyond the top of the first 5 wave sequence---Think of the first 5 wave sequence as A--the retracement of same as the B--and then the second 5 wave upsequence as the C-----What I am saying is that based on my interpretation of the weekly nymex crude chart, we are very near the end of wave 3 of this FIRST 5 wave sequence and that my guess is that the end of this particular 5 wave sequence will approach 28-30ish. MY sense is that this 5 wave sequence will be completed within the next few weeks. After that, I am looking for a 38%-50% retracement of this entire sequence(that began at approx 10.50ish)--which would target the $20-22 area (ie a retest of the recent hard spike down to near 21)---and THEN the second 5 wave upsequence should likely begin that will take the near month nymex crude futures to beyond 30----say towards 35ish if the second 5 wave sequence was 62% of the length of the first 5 wave sequence. It could even test 40 if C=A.-----As to what will cause the B wave? who knows. Something will come along. Just a hunch, but maybe the realization that Y2K on Jan 1st is not going to disrupt supplies after all? ---- It is obvious that while speculative traders on nymex may rachet up oil futures, investors in the shares are not playing the same game (partly due to the belief that the spike must end and partly due to depressed NG). So, except for NG starting to rise, I think energy shares will continue to languish until we react to near the bottom of the coming B wave in oil. The shares may rise somewhat in the interim due to a turn in NG but likely not to new highs. Only when we retrace in the B will anyone feel sufficiently 'safe' to jump in as I see it......Of course, after new highs in the shares (amidst the C up phase in oil), it will likely be the time to leave "for good" for awhile---my 2c
