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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockOperator who wrote (34301)	11/27/1999 8:48:00 PM
From: Jurgen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi SO, good to see you again. I like your posts, and you don't worry too much about fundamental stuff, PEs etc (btw, what is a P/E ? <gg>). Just my two cents on "how high can it go ?" on the NAZ. I trade trends only and my little simple toolbox doesn't allow me to call a top/bottom. Like almost everybody else i got a mega-buy signal on 10-28/29, and since then i've been trading long only. The trend is, of course, intact and i don't even have an oversold reading on my StochRSI(8,5). Oscillators arn't all that good in strong trends. So, how high can it go ? Just to get a feeling where we are in a trend, i monitor the difference between the close and the 50 day SMA. The closing price can't defy the gravity of the average price, it always comes back. Like a rocket running out of gas. But how far can it get away ? So far the highest value has been 18.4%, reached on 1-11-99. Before that, the high was 16.6%, set on 2/6/91. Right now, we're at 16.4%. I would give it another 2-3% or max. 100 points. Then we'll get some kind of consolidation. If that will be sideways or down, i don't know. But the averages will get a chance to catch up. Jurgen

To: StockOperator who wrote (34301)	11/28/1999 2:01:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Your reasoning is very very sound as to the high flyers have the most room to fall but I would have to disagree for the "paranoid" reasoning I have about the market right now. This rally has been so narrow and mainly been inthe heavy weights like CSCO, SUNW etc that I don't believe they could allow those to fall or else the Indexes would just about collapse. The rallies in these stocks is all that has been making the indexes go up to make J6P think everything is fine in the world despite the new lows running consistantly over 200 and reaching 300 Tuesday. If they let those few stocks fall, the NASDAQ could lose 100 points in one day easily. Just like AG got himself in a no win situation, the market manipulators have now got themselves in one too. They can't allow the big boy stocks to drop or all heck will break loose. I believe once you see SUNW, CSCO, QCOM, GE etc falling more than say 5%, you better head for the bomb shelter because things are about to get real ugly and even an umbrella won't save you from the bodies flying out the windows. PS - I have the TYX topping around 6.35% IF it can get throgh this area of gap resistance I mentioned to GZ Friday basically at our current level. I would expect a reversal at least temporarily around there before another push up could start. As for the Dollar, we were at a long term bearish fork tine Wednesday so the drop Friday could mean that the trend is still really down and that this was a bear market rally for the currency. This would make things very interesting since we have noted here many times that what the dollar does, the market soon does. Good Luck, Lee