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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JDinBaltimore who wrote (34315)	11/27/1999 5:04:00 PM
From: cary garner	Respond to of 99985

notice how the $ came off 104 levels in july to the lows of 97/98 levels in oct. charts.quotewatch.com the oct market lows is when easy al & co. opened the money faucet even more. i don't know when this madness will end. but "you can't fight the fed." all indications are that easy al will do all he can to keep the bubble alive and well. someday it will pop. i'm not sure even easy al knows when that will be. after all, easy al is not even sure we are in a mania bubble.

To: JDinBaltimore who wrote (34315)	11/28/1999 12:37:00 PM
From: Steve Robinett	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

JD, You ask, probably rhetorically, whether the late Friday selloff is , ...to be continued Monday. A couple of items are worth noting. First, the general market is overbought by almost any short-to-intermediate term measure. According to probability theory, there is currently about a 25% probability of further upside above the general market's 20 day moving average and about a 75% probability of no further upside. Second, and to my mind most interesting, is a glance at Friday's OEX (The S&P 100) and VIX (the VIX measures the implied volatility in a basket of OEX options) The OEX closed at 753.57, up on .37 (.05%) but the VIX closed at 22.95, up 2.48 (12.12%). So on almost no move from the OEX itself, the OEX options added massive volatility, enough to add 1-1/2 points to OEX options near the money. Most of this took place in the last hour Friday. (BTW, the put-to-call ration is at .43, incredibly optimistic and also incredibly bearish). My guess (and my option bet) is that the index option players just changed their mind and that, beginning tomorrow, we're about to scare the turkey stuffing out of a lot of pilgrims. Best, --Steve