To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (2168 ) 11/28/1999 4:37:00 AM From: Tommy Dorsey Read Replies (4) | Respond to
Tom from the bottom of the Zugspitze, I'm sitting here at my hotel desk exactly where Bavaria meets Austria. THe landscape is storybook, wooden cabins, and guys walking around with green felt hats. If you really want a P&F reunion, this is the place. Yes the net is truly amazing. THe dollar is very strong, as I am long the futures contracts and it continues to look great. The Euro made an all time low yesterday vs the dollar. No problem with the dollar. The 20bond average suggests inflation is not out of the question. IN fact we have it now around 4%. Use the government numbers and compound it out for ayear and you hit 4%. NOw the market normally puts a 3% premium over the inflation rate for the long bond. This suggests we will see 7% on the long bond. I know that is sacreligious to say such a thing, especially when our government wants to hide that fact from us but it probably is in the cards. Who knows however, as we don't predict. IF the 20 bonds gives a buy signal at the new lower level now then it is not in the cards. The reversal may however portend that another double bottom is coming in the already long line of double bottoms since it gave us the FANTASTIC signal Febraury4 of htis year. We normally see some sort of year end rally and I would guess this year will be no different. I also wouldn't listen to other's reasons of an impending crash as they are probably not the ones that have brought you to this point in the investment cycle. The BP probably had more to do with it than they did. Therefore I will continue to dance with the one what brung me to the party. IF it gives a late signal it will be about the first and tha'ts ok too. IT's ok to be wrong on the market, it's not ok to stay wrong. Watch the percent of stocks above 30 for a change this week if it does. THis will be important. Also watch carefully the Optin Stock bullish percent as it is more sensitive to change. Nothing says that as theyse indicators begin to weaken on a short term basis you too begin to hedge your bet. Hell we've got many years to amass a major chunk of money, but at the rate my Red Hat is going I might just do it in a matter of weeks. How about dat hat Tom. All the people on this thread are in a special unique group who instinctively feel things that use to baffle them about the market. You have already seen the things I just discussed. The beauty of this SI thread is we all reinforce eachothers opinions or provide a new window to contemplate. Someone said the dollar was weak and all you did was go to the commodity page, look at the dollar chart and you automatically knew he was full of,... well slightly off base. Time for a nice cigar and a walk in the countryside. Tom
