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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kjhwang who wrote (17343)	11/27/1999 9:19:00 PM
From: A. Robbins	Respond to of 29970

Ah, yes but remember that excite is about to unveil their new broadband portal. Perhaps there may exist some surprises you have not considered when broadband customers have a custom broadband portal to utilize. That's the real reason behind the excite purchase in the first place right? Not to compete in narrowband space and just be another narrowband portal, but to rule the broadband arena when it becomes the norm. There may only be about 1M or so broadband surfers at the moment but were moving to towards criticality and a superior broadband portal could be the catalyst. This is also why I believe the Excite tracking stock is going to be a surprisingly good investment for us ATHM longs! Narrowband shoppers will be living in AOHELL!

To: kjhwang who wrote (17343)	11/27/1999 9:53:00 PM
From: E. Davies	Respond to of 29970

You are correct that AOL is a powerhouse with a substantial brand. Here are two questions: 1)How much more can AOL grow without cable? 2)How much can cable grow without AOL? My answers: 1) Some. Maybe 2-3x 2) Tons. Easily 10-20x. Someday nearly everyone will be broadband. How can AOL keep its 50% share without all possible broadband access? Who needs who? How can ATHM possibly survive without a partnership with aol or some other major content provider? I'd venture to say that hardly anyone who has an ISP other than AOL cares in the slightest about the content they offer. I'd also venture a guess that 1/2 of AOL users don't care in the slightest about AOL content either. Excite could be dumped into the ocean and ATHM never have any content and it still would be a success. People get cable for the speed, not the content. Eric

To: kjhwang who wrote (17343)	11/28/1999 12:59:00 AM
From: LLCoolG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

TCI, I understand what you are saying, and am not trying to argue with you very much. I expect Excite to do a good job of providing content. If they do not, it will not optimize my investment in ATHM. However, I believe that content will be a separate entity from the ISP. I would find it hard to believe that anyone who left AOL still visits their websites for content. I don't. The key for AOL is to maintain customers using them for their ISP, whether that means lowering their prices enough to sustain its marketshare as DSL grows, cutting a deal with a cable-based ISP such as ATHM, or cutting a deal with a wireless provider. My main statement and belief is that if AOL can maintain their ISP customer base, let alone grow it at a substantial base, the company should do very well. I don't think that they will be able to compete with the RBOCs on DSL from what I have seen in the Pacific Northwest; right now it is $76.50/mo for DSL with AOL and $50/mo with GTE. I also don't see a current wireless option. Therefore, I believe that AOL needs to do a deal with cable to optimize their performance. ATHM is the best option there. But if AOL tells ATHM to go jump in a lake, and signs on with HSAC and RoadRunner--I'd buy some stock back. I am not bashing AOL. For me, there are other places i would rather put my money right now, given an option. AOL stock was extremely good to me, but the home run has been hit there. I see ATHM as a potential home run, but if they sell their soul to AOL, I see the potential decreasing quite a bit. There are other places I'd rather be. Simple--that's what makes a market; and that's why I could have made another 35 points on my AOL stock if I was always correct! I don't want to teach you anything, we just have different points of emphasis. I'm not that smart, anyway. And if there is a major market correction, I would probably rotate some money back into AOL--it usually comes back first. I am happy you have made your points. I can understand them. You are the first person in quite a while to make those rational, coherent, and thoughtful observations regarding this issue. Even if I don't agree 100%, I respect what you have shared here. That's all I asked for in my original post. And if a deal goes through, and I happen to sell my ATHM, and it triples the following year, I'll be the first person to tip my hat to you and everyone else who stays in. My decision will rest on what ATHM gives up, and most likely I will sell a portion of my position, probably not all of it. I have no idea what will happen. Talk to you later. G