To: keith massey who wrote (2678 ) 11/28/1999 1:21:00 AM From: Keith Minler Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 5053
Hi Keith; I think that there are more than a few reasons for the poor response to the news releases. I think that we need to take a broader perspective. 1)The flavour of the month is wireless technology, look at EWD up from below a buck in the summer to $7.10, with almost no news releases, one deal, one financing and I think only one alliance. Remember last year when bid.com was the flavour and everyone was hoping the hysteria would spill over onto there favourite stocks? And it didn't!! 2)The announcements meant the end to the possibility of a .com deal. I personally, and I think many others; were attracted to this play by the promise of a .com deal. Best case scenario now, is more medsite type deals. The medsite deal is likely very lucrative but we end up with what; 1% of the company (Yes, thats only my guess). The amazing valuations put on some internet companies; such as Amazon.com is based on the market perception that they not only dominate a market niche but that they OWN that market; in much the same way that Microslop owns the O/S market. Clearly Jordex does not have a chance at buying that kind of dominance. Yes, I know, people have been saying that we can be the next CMGI, but they laid the groundwork for their success years ago; before anyone placed any value on internet start-ups. 3)Since none of the announcements were final, my take, and I think that of many others is that there will not be a rash of deals announced until these are finalized. Which means potential buyers waiting for JDX to launch felt they had time before committing. 4)As the week progressed it became apparent that the launch had failed and this means it will be awhile before a financing can be done. Teevee commented that they could always raise money but it is obviously much better (for us existing shareholders)to be doing a financing at five dollars a share than one. And they do need more seed capital to be taken seriously. 5)The confusing NR's didn't help. But the market has had an entire week to get up to speed. I personally had all the releases read to me over the phone by about 10:30 Monday morning by my broker at Nesbitt, which means nearly anyone who cared (Bunka excepted!!!) had access to the news. My reaction at that time was much like yours; oh no, and then well-- thats not too bad. On reflection (At least two minutes worth); I realized that we are looking at building a venture capital/holding company and that this would be a much slower road to riches than a .com deal. I am still totally long, still optimistic that Civelli and friends will run this thing to double digits. Might just take awhile. I have run on at some length because I think there may be a bit of a panic come Monday, as you know the candlestick chart for Friday showed a Doji, which coupled with declining volume for the end of the week is generally considered a signal for a change in trend, in this case likely drifting down or sideways. I think there will be a buying opportunity for those of strong convictions and courage. As always thanks for your DD and bringing the Bunka story to light, another interesting fact to digest. I look forward to reading his update. Later Keith Minler PS. Speaking of newsletters if anyone out there subscribes to Neil Maedel, be on the lookout for a recommendation on Jordex, When they ran Napier from $0.20 to $4.80 Maedel came out with a key buy recommendation which pushed the stock from $2.50 to the top. He is based in Switzerland and I am sure part of Civelli's European connection.