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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rupert1 who wrote (72785)	11/28/1999 12:25:00 AM
From: rupert1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

Here is a post from Yahoo Club about Prudential setting a target of $49 on COMPAQ and giving it a STRONG BUY rating. Just remember that Prudential were always among the very bullish on COMPAQ and their previous targets were not met. Also note that the target of $49 requires a forward p/e of 39. When was the last time that COMPAQ enjoyed a forward p/e above 30? My own target for 2000 is $60 as of the end of Janaury 2001 based on 2000 earnings of $2.00 and 2001 earnings of about 2.75 So by January 2001 the p/e would be looking forward to $2.75 and the p/e would be in the 25-30 range. All this assumes no negative surprises and the effective execution of current plans. My target for July 2000 is in excess of $40 because the earnings for 2000 would be proving to be better than the current average projections and the forward p/e would be discounting until July of 2001. My target for end of January 2000 is a $30-32 with a spike just before or after earnings to $36. I think that the price will fall again to the $26-32 range before moving higher in the summer above $40. The single biggest threats to these projections would be the potential failure of MC to execute the cost cutting measures completely, swiftly and effectively and other ill-considered acquistions which are not immediately accretive. _________________________________________ Re: Prudential Select List jjkozub (67/M/Maryland) 11/27/1999 10:03 pm EST I can confirm that CPQ has made Prudential's Select List with a Strong Buy, on Nov. 24. Prudent sets as Target Price: $49. In a supporting analysis to justify the strong upgrade, PRU cites: (a) strong demand along all business segments; (b) sale of Alta Vista stake and acquisition of 16.1% of CMGI stock;benefits from restructuring ($2B cost saving); (c) agreement with Cable & Wireless. $49 price target is based on PE of 39 for FY 2000 earnings. They caution that "it is too early to jump back in aggressively", nevertheless they view momentum as improving, and foresee acceleration in top line growth in 2000. Can't say more. Look it up at client.prusec.com; easiest if you're a Prudential client. After all these months, the end of agony may be in sight and CPQ may once again give Dell a run on Wall Street. Remember the story of Apple, when it had fallen to $16 (and somewhat below), then came back strong with Steve Jobs at the helm.Time may have come to average down (or up, depending where you started). JJKozub

To: rupert1 who wrote (72785)	11/28/1999 12:59:00 AM
From: Captain Jack	Respond to of 97611

Vic-- I never have and expect no one else to kiss any butt. When I speak of WS it takes in everyone from the analysts, ibstitutions, and mom/pop investors. The SEC now demands all be treated the same,,, it seems MC said he was going to do something of that nature once. Plus-- I "demand" nothing as I have little faith in cpq or in getting even any longer. No I do not have tremendous faith in the qtr results. The strongest indication received was the raise in div,, not that it was a fortune but will effect the bottom line--- I think he suggested they can AFFORD a few perks,, then came the filing,,, the word guidence does not mean just the cool crap but the ugly stuff too. Guidence means something additional to cpq-- that is credability -- something EP / EM lost for cpq and if it is ever to be great needs to be brought back (earned) by honesty and being open. Actually it will take a lot of 'doing' before anyone automatically assumes cpq will do well in any qtr until they have proven themselves which will take some time,,, less time with a gain in credability. <<"I believe if he knew something good about 4Q and 1Q he would have said it by now.">> True,,, but we do not know if he knows things are on track or not,,, waiting until the numbers are out indicate he is clueless until handed the final results. As it was only a few months ago when it was stated this communications company had not integrated the DEC payroll and someother accounting procedures from DEC and overseas operations... this far into the qtr he should have a 'feel' for it and have preliminary reports.. if he cannot read them cpq do a better job of finding a cfo than than they did a ceo... MC deserves this qtr I guess,,, but time is up then,,, he needs a cfo and to produce some guidence good or bad to all shareholders... the only ones he can count on are the little guys as evidenced by the institutional exodus EP/EM caused...