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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dclapp who wrote (34333)	11/28/1999 2:25:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 99985

You may be correct but the one thing that keeps me from buying puts right now is that there are a large number of puts out there already right now. The put call ratio may be low but the index puts are still pretty high IMO. Until there is less hedging to the downside, I can't see a drop coming yet. I may end up being late but I would rather see a sign that we are either thre or at least getting closer before I start fighting the trend. I started getting some short term signals on my weekly charts this week. Once those turn into class 2 or bett yet class 1 signals, I will start piling on the puts as the timing isn't perfect but it usually gets within a few weeks of a major top and that is the one I want to catch. <ggg> I still think from my cycle work etc that next spring will be the top and by summer we are going to have a BK but it is still early. I am just hoping that I will be a receiver in the once in a lifetime transfer of wealth from the sheeple to the knowing that used to be laughed at for being cautious during the mania. <ggg> Believe it or not, Tuesday's sell off and then Wednesday and Friday's action bled off a lot of the short term pressure as my indicators are getting back to mid range. Of course my longer term stuff is still near the top but we could get another push up. I am not looking for anyting big here until at least the FOMC meeting gets closer. As I was doing the post Turkey day shopping the last few days, the abundance of Help Wanted signs was amazing. I don't think there was a store bigger than 15 X 15 that didn't need to hire someone. Even the department stores were advertising for 15-20 people and allowing you to pick what ever shifts you wanted even only weekends. Now tell me about no wage pressure if no one can find enough employees. I also had to fill up my tank today and the cheap stuff was 1.47 with the mid grade at 1.59 and the good stuff was 1.65. Needless to say, my fun car will be staying in the garage for the winter since it only drinks the good stuff. <g> Good Luck, Lee