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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (11300)	11/28/1999 2:18:00 PM
From: Len	Respond to of 54805

Frank, I have been concerned with the potential that we are all riding on Q's momentum and are doomed to a major, major pullback when the momo buyers pull out. So, I did a little comparative analysis of some of the companies often discussed here, all of which seem to be on the front edge of technology. Basically, I have listed the P/S ratio and then listed the trailing P/E ratio followed by estimated Y2K earnings and the reultant Y2K P/E. p/s 1999 T P/E Y2K Est Earnings Y2K P/E QCOM 16.3 347.25 $4.21 91.38 CSCO 23.67 158.48 $1.07 87.78 EMC 19.92 90.77 $1.53 69.46 MSFT 23.96 60.67 $1.91 47.70 NTAP 27.22 216.88 $ .79 165.26 JDSU 61.42 N/A $1.34 198.5 GMST 74.48 158.63 $ .95 124.7 SEBL 24.54 156.59 $ .76 93.75 My conclusions: 1. Price/Sales is a key metric for high growth tech companies. Using this criteria QCOM is the most attractive stock listed. However, we may see revenue growth slow as a result of the pending hand set sale. 2. 1999 P/E is scary but based on next yesar's estimated earnings QCOM is well within the pack. 3. NTAP is scary all the way around-- I hold NTAP. 4. QCOM may not be undervalued but given the estimates for the future it does not appear to be overvalued either. 5. Short of an industry or market disaster QCOM remains a good investment. 6. We, on this thread have supported QCOM for solid fundamental reasons and not as a result of groupthink. Regards, Len