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To: Richard Tsang who wrote (12425)11/28/1999 11:20:00 AM
From: Dale BakerRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 118717
 
How about general irrational exuberance?

Seriously, I just don't see much reason for most people to sell and get hit with tax bites in December. January is another matter. Plus the quarter is supposed to be good for earnings (fewer warnings), E-tailers will have mega-traffic and sales increases coming out every week.....

A lot of don't worry, be happy in the market that I am looking at. And no more overseas regions with money that haven't already blown up once, no impeachment worries, federal budget will be passed, no total lunatics in serious contention for the White House, Y2K has been largely fixed/dispelled/discounted into the market, etc.

Maybe it's my own irrational exuberance. I am up 101% for 1999 and 150% off last October's lows, still holding a widely diversified portfolio with over 40 positions. That tells me that momentum is OK for the moment.

When the momentum turns, stop loss orders will be the new religion.

Otherwise I won't unload by choice or invest in any more hedge positions unless we see a visible 180-degree turn in the market (more than a day or two). I already blew enough this year shorting and buying puts on the XLK to little avail.

Their time will come eventually.