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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (11335)	11/28/1999 3:16:00 PM
From: Dr. Id	Respond to of 54805

In regard to groupthink, to reiterate it is defined as a decision-making situation where the group suspends objectivity and careful analysis in an effort to preserve group cohesiveness. Groups don't suspend anything unless they vote on it or by some consensus-building process agree to suspension. It's absolutely impossible for an online group that is open to the world-wide public to enforce any such suspension. Mike, While I agree that the group think definition is limited in its literal application to an on-line "group", I also think that with changing paradigms our concepts also need to expand and adapt. I think that the group think concept is still an important one to consider in our group, as whether the group votes literally as a whole matters less to me than whether the group forms a false consensus that would influence members to make particular investment decisions. Also, I tend to think of concepts such as group think along a qualitative continuum, rather than a quantitative "either-or" concept. In other words, it's not whether group think exists or not on the thread, but how much or how little. (Sort of like the issue of sexism which I am guessing will be our next extended topic!):-) To take it one step farther, the example of Kennedy's cabinet doesn't apply to this forum. Kennedy's cabinet was made up of people who could be fired for not living up to the rules; the rules of Kennedy's cabinet were enforceable whereas the rules of our forum are not. Moreover, Kennedy's cabinet made decisions that affected the rest of the world. Contrast that with this forum, where there's not an investment decision made that affects anyone else in the forum (barring highly unusual circumstances involving those who might be in the same family and/or otherwise susceptible to financial decisions by wills and other legal documents and moral obligations.) Again, I think that there are several "influential" members of the thread (you are included, like it or not!) that will influence the investment decisions of others. While not "world changing" decisions, group think can also infect groups with far less important tasks. The Kennedy example was only used as a very graphic illustration. Understanding all of that, group-think in an online folder is a non-issue for me. If the folder is heavily engaged in group-think, I'll decide to agree or disagree with the consensus. Either way, I'm the only person in the folder who is affected by my decisions and I'm happy to accept that responsibility. Again, Mike, while the issue may not apply as directly to you (as you are one of the leaders who does the most research), many on this thread are not as independent as investors. People like to have some consensus about their investment decisions, and some "hand-holding". Otherwise, why would full service brokers still exist? I agree that in a perfect world, everyone would be objective and make their own independent investment decisions. However, I don't think that is the case for most of us. And if the thread can keep an eye open for group think and false consensus, we will all be better off. As for my posts, I'm just as happy when they confirm peoples' reasons to disagree or agree with me. It really doesn't matter which way my posts influence others or if they influence others at all. What does matter to me is my gratitude for those who participate in the process of trying to learn, opening their minds up for all of us to share facts and opinions that help each of us make our own decisions. Just my opinion. This I agree with completely! (and its not a function of group think!) Jeff