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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (81256)	11/28/1999 3:15:00 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572719

Ted, <Petz, Dan, Charles, Mani et al....is that not correct? > Your math is on the right track but I find it a little too early to count on Dresden output. We need a little bit more certainty on the beginning of the ramp and some guidance from management on the rate of ramp to establish some baseline parameters. Chuck

To: tejek who wrote (81256)	11/28/1999 3:26:00 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572719

Hi tejek: The number 25 million is supported by management commentary on Nov. 11. Engineering isn't my major, but if memory serves me correct, the 5000 wafers per week translates into about 6 million microprocessors per month assuming 100% yield. Of course yields will not be 100%. I think it is safe to assume yields between 30% and 60%. At 30%, you're lookinhg at 2 million microprocessors per month or close to 25 million per year. In no way do I mean to imply that AMD will be able to produce 25 million Athlons in Y2000 as it will be a while, if ever, before Dresden achieves capacity. What I would imply is that 10 million Athlons and 15 million non-Athlons in Y2000 coupled with $2 billion in flash memory revenues is not an impossibility, given continuation in the turnaround experienced by AMD since the market introduction of Athlon a mere 5 months ago. If achieved, such projections could produce a $2 billion 2000Q4! and a much much improved market valuation, upwards of $20 billion...