To: Rarebird who wrote (45378 ) 11/29/1999 7:47:00 AM From: long-gone Respond to of 116764
More against the WTO: Subject: WTO n the De-synchronization of the Global Econ Author: i dunno any more (tao.ca) Date: 11-29-1999 02:48 STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update November 29, 1999 The WTO and the De-synchronization of the Global Economy Summary: The World Trade Organization (WTO) is meeting in Seattle this week. The participants are so divided that they could not even develop a formal agenda for the meetings. While everyone is focused on China's admission, the fact is that the WTO is moribund, only a few years after its creation. Its failure is rooted in the fundamental reality of today's global economy: de-synchronization of regions of roughly equal bulk. Ever since the Asian meltdown, the world's economic regions have been completely out of synch. Indeed, individual nations within regions are out of synch. That means that the creation of integrated economic policies is impossible. What helps one region hurts others. Thus, organizations like the WTO cannot function. Instead, regional institutions are emerging. The,y too, face conflict among constituent nations, but are more likely to create coherent and beneficial policies for their regions. This points to increased tension among and within regions. Such de- synchronization has been seen in the past. It is, over the course of a generation, a warning of the potential for serious international conflict. Analysis: The World Trade Organization (WTO) will hold ministerial level meetings in Seattle on Nov. 30. Representatives from 135 member countries and several observer countries, including China, will gather. Demonstrators protesting the effect of WTO policies on workers in the Third World will share space with demonstrators protesting the effects of WTO policies on workers in the advanced industrial countries. In fact, the demonstrations outside the meeting halls will be more interesting than the discussions inside. This is not to say that the demonstrations will be all that interesting. Rather, the meetings inside the hall will be an exercise in near irrelevance. The purpose of the meetings is to kick off a new round of trade talks designed to increase free trade and reduce barriers to international trade. Preliminary talks in Geneva revealed such a sharp division among the 135 participant nations that it proved impossible to create an agenda for the meetings. In other words, the members were so divided that they couldn't even agree on what ought to be discussed. President Clinton, the host, sought to break the logjam by turning the meetings into a summit, on the theory that a summit would raise the political stakes and decrease the chances of a total breakdown. By last Wednesday, however, the president had abandoned his plans for a summit, claiming that the logistics were simply too complex. The fact was that few were willing to come. (cont)phorum.tao.ca