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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wowzer who wrote (55565)	11/29/1999 11:07:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

Aggie re: EEX - also, NBL UPR OEI PXD FST ; the "window" is open here. Aggie; the Street seemed to be confused by EEX's move to support cash flow via the purchase of the Tesoro properties - of which they've hedged that production. It was an insurance policy; and that seemed to be what the Street wanted - as they kept saying that EEX would be facing depleting production without a major wildcat success etc. So Hamilton does what they want - and they kill him for doing it... The guy can't win imho. He has bought some significant stock on the open market here and a while back. Valuationwise; it is certainly way oversold fundamentally. It could be a $10 stock with success at Llano. Look at what CWEI did here of late - looked like it was going under on some poor drilling results; sold off then nearly tripled off of some drilling success. EEX's drillbit leverage to Llano & other projects dwarfs that of CWEI. The only risk imho is - is this the bottom ? What happens if the additional work at Llano also disappoints ? Is that possibility allready priced in here ? Or, does it blow off to $1-2 as institutions just throw in the towel ? Imho; not a bad play to dip your toe into - but, only a 1/2 position here; then either double down on the potential freefall from more disappointing news from Llano, or add on the release of success... Personally; I love NBL UPR OEI PXD FST instead. All have 50%+ upside just to prior levels of late - which were still undervalued at those levels ! and the crude balanced vs. nat gas pureplays may be the best play of all. But, NBL near a 5 year low ? - I'll take that bet witht the Nat Gas Story for Winter '99-2000 allready being given up on by the market.NBL near a 5 year low - with vitually much of the last 3 years spent at nearly double from here - over $40. Give me NBL vs. EEX as "my" play here fwiw. In some E&P's it's getting close to being strictly a "call option" play in the E&P sector and personally levraging options vs. adding any more individual shares. My .02 cents. PS - pz & post patrol - what's yours (VBG) ?

To: Wowzer who wrote (55565)	11/29/1999 11:10:00 AM
From: Think4Yourself	Respond to of 95453

I think you are right about the funds shorting oil, and I think I may have figured out why they are all saying the rally won't last on CNBC =>TODAY<=. They are (IMHO) trying to talk down the price of oil so they can cover short positions today. If tomorrow's API numbers are "normal" the price of oil will go up even more, and they will not be able to cover without major losses. IMHO we will see the high in January if any significant amount of wells shut down due to Y2K problems. The prices then will make today's price look dirt cheap. Even the ANALysts should be able to see this, and the less anal ones may want out while they still can.