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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (29699)	11/29/1999 1:12:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77400

Elmatador, I think you make some good points and perhaps there is some even better stuff you have that is getting lost in the translation. Here are my thoughts. The future of convergence in Europe is going to be data (broadband) over fixed (wired) networks, and voice by way of GSM. But I mean GSM 2G, the bread and butter existing telephony wireless. Data over the air-interface will run on 3G wireless the broad(er)band sort. Wireless telephony is a technology with better price/performance than wired technologies. So it will displace voice from fixed networks. I suspect that in the short term you may be right - that mobile telephony will continue to use GSM for a while but as 3G becomes available the carriers will convert data and voice to a common 3G infrastructure. It's quite simple - it'll cost them less to administer. I do think this transition will take some time. Now, wrt access from the home, in Europe where getting good wire to the home is a problem wireless for data and voice will likely be the norm. But I think broadband to the home will still see a strong market due to higher speeds offered and higher reliability. Long term this too will probably migrate to wireless. In the end however - even if everything is wireless... I'm lost as to how this migration pushes CSCO to the edge. So, perhaps you can elaborate as to why CSCO can not play in the core in a wireless network given that the underlying protocol is IP and the networks are packet based. This seems to be predisposed to CSCO infrastructure. The guys that are most willing to get rid of their fixed line (30% of them) are the guys who spend over $100 in mobile bills. Yes... agreed. The users that spend below $25 a bills are not willing to give up the RJ-11. They will eventually.. it'll just take more time and more services to lure them away. Which means those low paying subscribers will stay on these very expensive infrastructure, the PSTN, a.ka. old world. If the telco infrastructure is relegated to carry only those universal service obligation this means telco's going out of business. Assume that telco's offering wired service don't also offer wireless..or aren't working to migrate there. the cost of the wired services are in support only as new circuit switches will not be required. When the cost of servicing the wired network is greater than the revenues derived these businesses will more actively move customers to wireless...even if it costs them some money (subsidize the customer) to make it happen. Anyway, the rest of your argument loses me. I don't think CSCO is predisposed to any access technology - wireless, DSL, Cable, ISDN, V.90... The more users on the network the more infrastructure...that's the only thing that matters. If the world goes wireless tomorrow - how does this push CSCO more to the edge than they already are? OG