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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: vince doran who wrote (81406)	11/29/1999 2:01:00 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1572782

Vince, <I bailed on my Jan 25s this am when Gateway said 'Athlons after Christmas', then kicked myself for leaving so much money on the table. Interesting how what seems old news here is seen by the market.> Thought you dropped out after CuMine benchmarks. Glad to hear from you and glad that you benefitted from the move. (we can always to better but that's a different story) Chuck

To: vince doran who wrote (81406)	11/29/1999 2:05:00 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572782

Vince, Re: "bin splits" Yes AMD stated that after 10/30 that all wafer starts would be 0.18 on Athlon. Prior to that switch over they were obviously running 0.25 wafers as majority of wafer starts to ensure adequate AThlon Q4 shipments. Those wafers started in November will not ship out of AMD till end of Jan 2000. So they have only been running low volumes of 0.18 micron product. This is the product that they have announced as of today. My best guess is that they may have built as many as 200K units for 0.18. It would be INSANE for AMD to release just the 750 bin splits if these were yielding at say 30% of product mix. They would surely have announced say a 650, 700 and a 750Mhz family of parts to ensure shipping all the 0.18 micron parts in Q4. The good news is that speed spits must be excellent. And all these parts will be at good ASPs. My best guess is that OEM price for these will be north of $500. That adds a nice $100M to Q4 revenues and with a marginal cost of say $100/unit that adds $80M directly to the bottom line. That is the reason that I am holding to the Dec calls for now. It will not surprise me for AMD to announce that they expect to significantly exceed analysts forecast of a $0.10-20 loss for the quarter with a substantial profit. I do suspect a pullback to $29 or so today or tomorrow. But if an influential analyst upgrades we will probably see a $2-3 uptick real fast as well. Barring an overall market meltdown I see mid-thirties to forties in next month or so. regards, Kash