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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (34397)	11/29/1999 6:46:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

WHAT TO EXPECT NOW. ORD ORACLE. Timer Digest (203) 629-3503 has us ranked #2 in performance for the last 12 months in the November 22 issue. According to "Christopher Cadbury (212-249-1131)" market letter for November 29, The Specialists on the NYSE accounted for 55% of the exchange's shorting volume in the week ending November 12. Any Specialists shorting over 50% is bearish. We have found the Specialists are almost always right, but invariably they are early on their shorting by at least two weeks or more. The Specialists are warning that a significant decline is coming but the decline may not start until later in the month of December. The "5 day ARMS" readings have stayed below "4.00" for 12 consecutive days. Readings below "4.00" are bearish. The longer the "5 day ARMS" stays below "4.00" the more bearish the intermediate term picture becomes. This indicator is calling for a significant intermediate term decline. Therefore we believe a bear market is just around the corner. However the market may bounce up first and hold up for several more weeks to a target high of 1450 area on the December S&P's. This potential bounce may come from the extreme downtick readings that have materialized over the last several days. Last Monday, Tuesday and today have produced downtick readings exceeding minus 1000. Downtick readings exceeding minus 900 appear near short-term lows. Therefore the downtick reading suggest the market may take a bounce up. A short-term buy signal could come if a second high downtick reading coincides with a bullish candlestick pattern. Also Seasonality is favorable during the month of December which also should support the market but look out for January. No Fax or email on Wednesday December 1 as we will be on financial TV station KWHY in Los Angles but we will update our (900) number at 2:00 Eastern on Wednesday. Thank you for your patience.

To: Les H who wrote (34397)	11/30/1999 11:00:00 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

---looks like fix is in for Friday's jobs report NEW US BLS EMPLOYMENT SEASONALS SEEN AS FAIRLY RESTRICTIVE By Joseph Plocek WASHINGTON (MktNews) - The new seasonal adjustment factors for employment and earnings released Monday morning by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics are seen as fairly restrictive and may dampen payroll growth going ahead, economists say. Ray Stone, principal at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates said he is sticking to his forecast of a 140,000 gain in November nonfarm payrolls. Since "this is at the low end of expectations," it may not matter to fine-tune the payroll gain within 10,000 or 20,000, Stone said. The new seasonals "on the surface are a bit restrictive and might depress employment," Stone said. But since he had a low number to begin with, there is no reason to move the forecast even lower, he indicated. Economists differed only slightly in their interpretations of the new factors. In part, the differences came because the factors were released by job type. There were more than 344 seasonals for payroll sectors alone, for example. David Ressler of Nomura Securities agreed. He said, "judging by what they (the new employment seasonals) are showing they would not seem to be much of a factor in the forecast." Nomura's November employment forecast remains at +190,000 for nonfarm payrolls. Many other analysts chose to maintain their prior estimates for payrolls. Bear Sterns economist John Ryding said he had "not even thought of changing" his expectations, suggesting that a shift in his payroll estimate would be minimal when he completed his analysis of the data. Where the new information changes the picture from the previous outlook is going forward. Private analysts will use the information to project what adjustment does to monthly forecasts, whereas the BLS uses the adjustment factors to "anchor" the forecasts from August 1999. The retail sector has been changed a bit by the new seasonals, economists said. The new adjustments look for more jobs creation in retail this year than in prior years. Stone said his calculations differ in that they look for retail jobs to gain 336,000 workers this year, versus a 264,000 gain in the BLS numbers. Retail jobs fell in September and October and this deceleration accounts for the difference. Another economist who was still working on the data said his preliminary estimates were that the new adjustments might add 62,000 jobs to September and subtract 33,000 from October, for a net gain of 29,000 jobs. September's payroll gain was reported at 41,000 and might become up 103,000. October, previously at up 310,000 jobs, might now become up 277,000. "Our main thesis is there are not enough workers and the seasonal, which anticipates a big, big gain in retail jobs, may be disappointed," Stone concluded. The bottom line therefore might be smaller payroll growth ahead. --Kevin Kastner contributed to this article.