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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GuinnessGuy who wrote (11479)	11/30/1999 6:58:00 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Craig, I see that you are an investor in Ancor. I'm an investor in Brocade. I'm glad that you joined the discussion because this 'game' deserves a look in terms of how this thread views investing in the context of gorilla gaming? You certainly have impressive returns in your investment over the past 50 weeks. Of course, starting with a stock price under $5 certainly helps. <ggg> The Red Herring article had buy ratings from 5 analysts at $22.44. I think the stock closed in the upper 60's yesterday if I'm not mistaken. The chart below shows the returns of Ancor, Brocade and Gadzoox over the past 50 weeks: siliconinvestor.com Here's a chart for 25 weeks which corresponds with when Brocade's IPO started trading: siliconinvestor.com Obviously, the market likes Brocade and Ancor and is awarding handsome GAPs and CAPs to both of them. Did you see my follow up post about the results of the latest quarter from Brocade? 457% revenue growth year over year. What has Ancor's revenue growth been year over year? Do you still see that only early adopters are in need of FC equipment? I don't know, I would love to get a better feel - as we all would. True, I got a little excited about the tornado comment thanks to Mr. Paul Johnson's comments. He didn't dub them a gorilla, just commented that they were the dominant player in the space at this time (that was few months ago). Yes, of course - net revenues were a mere $30 million and change this quarter. Gross margins were 50.8%. I will retract that 'full blown tornado' comment and wait for the appropriate indications of when I need to board up all of my windows. My apologies. However, we've got a game going on here that warrants exploration. "Market for FC (fiber channel) is accelerating and the acceptance of SANs is exploding" according to Brocade's management. If this is indeed true, I think we can look forward to explosive revenue growth going forward for these companies. That is what we will all be watching. I would be happy to hear your input because in true classic gorilla gaming, one should buy the basket of Ancor, Brocade and Gadzoox and consolidate into the dominant player that emerges (if one does emerge) once the tornado reveals its sweet head. I only had enough money at the time to invest in the market share leader - Brocade. I certainly want to step back and get the entire 'picture' at this point and perhaps your comments as well as others will help us all with our view. You may find Ashok Kumar to be widely respected, but I have a different view from past experiences. We have to take Kumar as well as Johnson with a grain of salt or two or three. Interesting that Johnson is one of our esteemed authors of the book, but I won't let that stand in the way. Nor will I let Kumar's past history stand in the way. Neither of them have the ability to make, create or stop a gorilla game. At this time, Brocade's revenue is greater than the competitors combined - so they say - management that is. Several sources that I have read have indicated that Brocade is enjoying an 80% market share. Even if it was less than that, at this point in time it qualifies as the market share leader. I will not argue that this could change very quickly. I will argue that this is real time, real money and warrants real watching - IMO. Nice to have you here Craig to point out some things that we need pointed out. Ignore my broad strokes and help us paint this picture. BB P.S. I love* that last name of yours....