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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SunSpot who wrote (34948)	11/30/1999 11:01:00 AM
From: Brian Malloy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

I guess that would also bring up the question, how many Alpha platforms are there and more importantly what is the adoption growth rate? The answer I believe is dismal at best. So I fail to see the importance or the significance of having technical superiority on a small and declining platform.

To: SunSpot who wrote (34948)	11/30/1999 11:07:00 PM
From: Valley Girl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

OS Wars: Solaris vs. RHAT vs. W2K Ultimately SUNW wants to sell you a sparc-based box, that's how they make their money. The threat to SUNW isn't really from any OS, but from Intel hardware. As you've pointed out, Linux is ported to many platforms, including sparc, so the fact that Linux has tossed its (r)hat into the ring changes the situation not at all. Of course SUNW also wants to sell you the OS, since there's lucrative support contracts etc. to be had. If they succeed in selling you a box, they're done. You'd have to be a dimwit not to go with Solaris if you buy a sparc-based box, since to do otherwise exposes you to unnecessary risks if and when you run into trouble with the platform. What about that Intel threat, then? Sun can't really counter this with Solaris. For one thing, Solaris x86 isn't very good. I bought the "free" Solaris 7 for $20, and by any measure Linux is miles ahead. The install was terribly error-prone, none of the Gnu stuff is bundled, and from a performance standpoint Linux runs rings 'round Solaris (it runs rings 'round NT, too). For another thing, Sun can't really expect to make much money giving the OS away on Intel and hoping to sell support (which seems to be RHAT's business model). SUNW is helped by the fact that the equation favouring movement to Intel has shifted. With the advent of three-tiered applications architectures, a lot of customers had a big incentive to throw machines at scalability problems on the mid-tier, and Intel boxes have been attractive as a low-cost solution. This all assumed you weren't past a certain size. The trend towards hosting applications (ASPs) plays back into the hands of the "big iron" vendors, SUNW, HWP, IBM, Compaq/DEC. They're still throwing machines at the problem, they're just throwing big machines! Where this leaves Win/2000 is unclear. At first glance it might be thought to deal MSFT (and for that matter RHAT) out of the game. Like Solaris and Linux, NT is also ported to other architectures, and in theory one might have chosen it to run an Alpha box, etc. But as with SUNW's position on Intel hardware, this is a tough sell for MSFT; NT hasn't sold well outside of its base. Despite this there's still hope for MSFT. Evil twin brother INTC isn't about to cede the server market to the others. Their partnership with HWP and efforts on IA64 may yet bear fruit. HWP can be expected to offer the HP/UX OS, but Win/2000 will also be an option. One way or another if INTC's a player, MSFT will be, too. They can compete versus Unix variants with superiour ease of administration, features such as active directory, etc. Plus once they have a viable platform in play, other parts of their stack such as BackOffice will look more attractive. It's not the game the folks in Redmond thought they'd be playing at this point, but they've still got a strong hand to play. I'd be very interested in what anyone else thinks about the coming OS wars. OSes are a particular interest of mine and 60% of MSFT's revenue! Well, it's been a long and not terribly cheery day, time to call it a night. Cheers!