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Gold/Mining/Energy : FOX ENERGY FEC on ALBERTA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: john who wrote (6)	12/3/1999 10:47:00 AM
From: CIMA	Respond to of 26

CNBC discussion bullish for oil and gas in 2000: CNBC had an interesting discussion this am about the FED having pumped $500 BILLION DOLLARS into the monetary system as insurance for Y2K. Hmmmm; now lets make sure we got this right...(VBG). 1. Y2K is going to be a non-event. 2. We know this because our "government" and the Media-spinmeisters have told us peons it would be so... Now, when was the last time you saw anyone throw $500 BILLION DOLLARS at a "non-event" ? That is not even the story however... Y2K may, or may not be a non-event. But - that $500 BILLION DOLLARS is not a non-event... We have continued job & wage pressures on the economy. The first of the year is when many people receive year end bonuses, negotiate new wage & compensation packages, when companies add staff - make capital improvements etc.The inflationary pressure is going to get worse, not better... Add the housing strength here and a factor that virtually itself will push the fed into a rate hike mode, as the straw that breaks the camels back imho. That factor is consumer spending. There is a huge undercurrent of fear within the consumer banking industry. Consumer spending and thus - consumer debt, has reached beyond dangerous levels. The debt ratio's of the avg Us family is out of control - plain & simple, no other way to label it. This is at the peak of a full employment & rising wage economy. Let this stutter even a single step, and the banking industry is going to see the largest spike in deliquencies and bankruptcies in history. This is being discussed openly; but the Banking industry is so pressured here to ignore this and to grow revenues and to push money - ala~ their allready depressed stock prices; that they can not be relied upon to self-discipline themselves. Trust me; the FED is about to do it for them. What is extremely bullish for the Oilpatch is the timing nature of this confluence of events. 1. all of this is occuring right at the beginning of the peak of demand drawdowns for both Crude Oil & Natural Gas. 2. Saddam may hold a trump card for Crude Oil that no one is seeing; never underestimate his true motive, or intentions. 3. While Y2K will probably be a non-event domestically; we saw what happens on both Wall St and in Globabl Markets from the Russian meltdown & So American debacles of last fall. Let there be a disruption in Middle East, South American Crude Oil production, or transmission - and watch where crude prices could go & see how Global Markets react. Let there be any disruption in the financial markets globally and watch where the US market goes. - that $500 Billion is not there because there is no risk... Never has there been such a "timing sensitive" confluence of events that could lead to a massive sector rotation to the Oilpatch and never has there been such a supporting set of fundamentals for Global Supply & Demand underlying the support for the sustainability of strong Crude prices.The market is so mesmerized by the overall market and especially the NASDQ, that they are totally ignoring the Oilpatch and its underlying fundamentals here. They have in fact used its prior near Sector leading YTD gains; as a petty cash account to both play the NASDQ game and to raise cash for potential Y2K redemptions. Also, as far as shareprices in the Oilpatch - never has there been such a divergence between valuations and crude prices. E&P's are at pure anomaly valuations here. This will not continue. We've seen 50% moves in the Oilpatch in amazingly short periods of time. Saw them in '97-'98 and with crude prices and supplly/demand fundamentals - and also with Market valuations no where near here. We are going to be riding the Big Wave here into Boom 2000. The Y2K Spike for the Oilpatch is going to jump start Boom 2000 unlike anything most are expecting imho. Buckle up...enjoy the ride.