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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (81535)	11/30/1999 12:45:00 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1572373

Ted, Re:"intel status" Here's what I think as a scenario that may "fit the facts" 1. Intel launched with product from 1 fab. And Q4 cumine volume will be 1-2M pcs for Q4 quarter. 2. Other 3 fabs are turned on and spigot opens dec-jan. This would fit with Q1 volumes of "double digit" cumines of say 10-12M units. Intel made the strategic mistake of having 15 products - mobiles, 533/600/666/733 for 133 memory. and 550/600/700 for PC 100 memory. This may mean that by end of Q4 only 300-400K per bin popular bin split. And by today they may only have shipped 50% of that. Unfortunately due to Athlons speed ramp all the "Intel" camp OEMS -Micron/dell/gateway/hp etc want 700/733 bin split cumines to be competitive with IBM/CPQ AThlons. If top ten OEMS ordered parts they may only have 20K pcs per oem per top bin splits by now with another 20K pcs before year end. As far as bin splits it would not surprise me if 40% of all splits are 700 and over with balance yielding at 650 and some stragglers hitting 600Mhz. In this scenario Intel may only have had firm orders for 1-2M cumines in Spetember when they were planning the launch particularly with all the RDRAM fiasco. I'm sure they saw huge demand for current 0.25 micron and allocated wafers accordingly. I find this fits the model of Intel not "lying" and PB being up front on bin splits/yields. It seems to fit all the data points, with the end result of a golden opportunity for AMD. Welcome everybodies thoughts. regards, Kash