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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (1606)	11/30/1999 12:46:00 PM
From: fut_trade	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

...Japenese buble burst because The bubble economy of Japan was closely related to the export market for Japanese goods. As markets expended, the Japanese companies continued to overbuild capacity for those goods. When the export markets began to slow, the Japanese companies were left with massive over capacity, which to this day they are trying to resolve.

To: marginmike who wrote (1606)	11/30/1999 12:59:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 19219

Mike, i am also talking of fundamental issues...the absence of a Japanese type real estate bubble is mainly a result of the relative scarcity of land in Japan, which fostered that particular aspect of the Japanese bubble. however, the credit bubbles and stock market bubble of the '90's in the U.S. has otherwise a more than passing resemblance to it's predecessor in Japan and even more so to it's predecessor in the '20's. actually, Japan at least boasted a strongly positive savings rate as well as a current account surplus, saving graces that where overwhelmed by the bursting of the bubble. of course i agree with you that the U.S. position as the sole hegemon is worth a certain premium... whether the bubble will burst due to an outside event is something i am not sure of...i'm equally not sure of when it will burst. could be to-morrow, could be next year. but if i were to guess, i'd say that at some point credit creation will reach it's natural limit, as both households and corporations are nearly maxed out in terms of leverage. both corporate and household debts are at post depression highs, and i would think that at some point there will be no going further into debt. that is when the house of cards will implode, as the bubble needs a constant accelerating stream of new credit to continue. regards, hb