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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mike Buckley who wrote (11564)11/30/1999 7:50:00 PM
From: Jill  Respond to of 54805
 
I like this format, Mike. Jill (eom)



To: Mike Buckley who wrote (11564)11/30/1999 8:02:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley  Respond to of 54805
 
The Front Office Gorilla Game: Numbers and a little more

The Game began on a lazy Memorial Day weekend in 1998,
about 1 1/2 years ago. The numbers are lookin' quite
impressive these days:

Year-to History
History -Date Quarter Month Annualized
Gorilla Game 239.61% 209.05% 69.24% 8.45% 123.79%
S&P 500 25.09% 12.99% 8.29% 1.92% 16.92%
Russell 2000 -1.92% 7.61% 6.27% 5.94% -0.86%

The Game began with four stocks in equal allocations.
Clarify, Vantive, and Siebel were the primary competitors in
the overall CRM category and Remedy was the lone candidate
the help desk market. Though Clarify and Vantive gradually
became weaker chimps with diminishing hopes for becoming a
gorilla, Clarify was in the process of a very successful
turn-around that boosted its stock to the point of being a
significant portion of the portfolio. Sticking to the
strategy of holding chimps lightly, in May I "sold" some
Clarify shares and used the funds to "buy" more shares of
Remedy and Siebel. Last month, soon after it was announced
that Clarify and Vantive will be acquired, I "sold" all of
those remaining shares and have not yet deployed the cash.
The two stocks still in the Game are performing as follows:


% of 5/98 5/99 Average Current
'Folio Buy Price Buy Price Buy Price Price
Remedy 23.1% $17.44 $17.50 $17.46 $34.88
Siebel 60.7% $11.50 $19.22 $13.55 $70.13

Remedy change from 5/98: 99.97%
Siebel change from 5/98: 509.78%

The total portfolio began with $10,000 and stands today at:

Stocks $28,463.63
Cash $5,497.58
Total $33,961.21

The details:

This is NOT a real-money portfolio. The interest earned on
the cash is not accounted for because it would not
significantly affect the performance. Commissions are based
on $8 per trade.

The caveats:

I own a long position in Siebel Systems, one of the stocks
in the above portfolio. I have owned and reserve the right
to own short and long positions in front office software
stocks discussed above as well as others. Please do your
own homework and don't make any investment decisions based
on anything I write anywhere or anytime.

--Mike Buckley