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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Apollo who wrote (11572)	11/30/1999 9:21:00 PM
From: Tom Ardnij	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Stan, I would second the observation that it was worth the price of admission many times over. I want to take some time to assemble notes from the conference to share in a most effective way the key things that I learned. I'll try to get that done yet this evening. At the core of the conference was Clayton Christensen's Innovator's Dilemma. George Gilder was co-host, so we heard lot's from him on the Telecosm. Several companies including Qualcomm had executives there in discussion panels. You can probably tell from a couple of my other posts that I believe that the concept of disruptive technologies disturbing the comfort zone of truly excellent companies is inextricably intertwined with our gorilla game. I think these disruptive companies are super G&K hunting grounds on the one hand, but very importantly they are also threats to the CAP that we hold dear in our existing gorillas. Let me put together a run-down on the conference to post for the thread. Best Regards, Tom

To: Apollo who wrote (11572)	12/1/1999 12:13:00 AM
From: Tom Ardnij	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Stan, Key Messages that I Brought Back from the Disruptive Innovation Conference: More on Disruptive Technology See Post: Message 12150640 Also per Clayton Christensen: Established leaders inevitably continue to improve sustaining technologies even well beyond the needs of the market in a well meaning effort. They will have a hard time with disruptive technologies. Disrupters start low end and move up the value ladder. Sustaining technologies tend to integrate lots of technologies and become very complex. Disrupters depend on modularity. Independent companies supply various components. Thus different design firm, outsourced manufacturing and distinct distribution. Modularity comes because disrupters compete based on speed and customization. They beat the complex integrated technology with speed and customization. Value added moves to the subsystem suppliers. Heard from Tensilica, one of the design houses for microprossor design technology. Scary, speed, customization Dr. Paul Jacobs President of Qualcomm Consumer Products said: Value added goes to the knowledge end, not the foundry thus sale of assembly type processes. Very Disruptive Technology approach. Next generation PDQ with limited voice recognition. Key Value Added is Intellectual Property,Chip Knowhow, and Service Providers, CDMA is going worldwide, Phone market today is 10 times what was predicted in 1991. 68% of U.S market is not served by cable or DSL. The rest of the world, much less. Some discussion in this panel about network processors. The notion that at the edges is fast enough. In the core you need super fast. Vulnerability of monolithic router. Donna Dubinsky of Handspring talked about Palm Pilot and Handspring. The success of Palm OS because it does what people want vs overshoot of Windows CE. Some talk of Bluetooth, the new device to device technology that negates having everything tethered to PC. George Gilder: There's no way that I can do George Gilder justice. I certainly suggest that we read his stuff. The Gilder Technology Report is subscribed by many here. He talked of the evolution from the Coal Age, Iron Age, Automobile Age, Computer Age, to the Information Age. A new factor of production is the new economical resource that is plummeting in cost. The factor is bandwidth. Modular approach, endorsement of JDS Uniphase creating the modules that drive the Telecosm. CEO of PMCS Internet traffic doubling every 100 days Data expected to be 98% of network traffic in 10 years. Complex communications silicon is available off the shelf. Time to market determines the winners. Vertical Integration is death in Semiconductors. Voice over IP trajectory. Fabless is the way to go. Speed, Speed, Speed, Time to market. Neat presentations from Island Co., W.R. Hambrich & Co. Disrupters in the financial markets. We are headed toward 10 Gigabit networks and gigibit internet to the home. Clayton Christensen's Top Ten Disruptive Technologies Online Services IP Telephony Online retailing Mobile Telecommunications Hand held digital appliances Microprossors Distance Education PC Software Fuel Cells and Microturbines Managed Healthcare Lot's of case studies. As at any conference much value in discussing ideas with others. 200 people, small enough to get to know the principals on some level. Clayton Christensen is a gentleman and a man of very real humility. His son Matthew is the center of Duke's basketball team. Clayton Christensen is 6'8". Best Regards, Tom