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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Green who wrote (34482)	12/1/1999 2:30:00 AM
From: Step1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

To all on this thread, I thought I would contribute these two articles: >>> first part of the message missing, see link for full article; ``We're very full on all sectors,' said Cathay Pacific Airways cargo manager Raymond Jewell. Cathay had experienced double-digit year-on-year growth in volumes. But Jewell said Y2K was an unknown quantity, and he said most of the credit was due to a robust U.S. economy. ``It's not really possible to say, and don't let anybody tell you otherwise. There's a bit of Y2K (demand) but most of it's driven by very, very strong U.S. demand,' Jewell said. Last month, Cathay chairman James Hughes-Hallett played down the impact of Y2K, saying he suspected e-commerce was a bigger factor in air cargo business than the industry thought. Airlines said Y2K was often getting the credit for pressure on capacity, although they would not know for sure until 2000. ``We're still assuming that the business benefit is through Y2K,' said a spokesman for British Airways (quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: BAY.L). Francis Lui, Northwest Airlines' (NasdaqNM:NWAC - news) managing director greater China and Southeast Asia, said cargo business was better than expected, following a 20 percent rise in the first half. US DEMAND RESPONSIBLE FOR ABOUT 50 PERCENT But Lui attributed about half of Northwest's business rise to U.S. demand, and about half to Y2K-related re-stocking. Hong Kong freight forwarders said demand was strong, pushing airline rates up by between five percent to 15 percent, but it was impossible to say how much of the demand was Y2K-inspired. ``This year we've noticed that the peak or busy period is longer than in the previous year,' said Hongkong Association of Freight Forwarding Agents (HAFFA) vice chairman Eligio Oggionni. Hong Kong Air Cargo Terminals Ltd (HACTL), which handles about 80 percent of all general cargo at the airport, said its business had surged in October. HACTL spokeswoman Venus Tsang said HACTL handled a total of 193,756 tonnes in October, compared with 152,525 tonnes one year earlier, but HACTL believed that Asian economic recovery was a more important factor than the Y2K factor. Airport Authority spokesman Chris Donnolley said Y2K-related shipments were a significant portion of rising cargo throughput, although some of it was due to strong economic recovery. ``To be prudent we're expecting a commensurate drop in cargo after New Year. It's a higher than average increase in cargo,' Donnolley said. <<<< bold emphasis mine. My comments: I think that the belief that Asia is recovering and that in the event of a US slow down (a <soft landing> as the euphemism goes) , Asia would pick up growth is a fallacy. Without US demand Asia will return to the grim work of deregulating rigid markets, dismantling stuborn conglomerates and in the process of laying off thousands upon thousands, will eventually wreck the creative destruction necessary for a new beginning. table rase as is said in French... for full link: biz.yahoo.com Next story: biz.yahoo.com article on the Australian market and its homegrown bubble.com flavor, which they say will end in burst.com ... >>> Some of the new speculative stocks are the same ones that used to trade at the small end of the mining market, such as the A$450 million telco Davnet (Australia:DVT.AX - news), formerly Golden Hills Mining, <<< My comments: human nature Thank you for a great civil and resourceful thread, Stephan