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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (10164)	12/1/1999 6:30:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Looks like my analysis of Fed. thinking has been on target at least temporarily <g>: Falling US jobless rate would warrant action-Meyer WASHINGTON (Reuters) - National unemployment already is so low that further declines would justify higher interest rates to curb potential inflation, Federal Reserve Governor Laurence Meyer said on Tuesday. In prepared remarks for delivery to New York University's business school, Meyer suggested it was ''prudent'' for interest rates to rise in response to levels of unemployment that were below normal levels. ''In my judgment, we are already in a range in which such a normal response to further declines in the unemployment rate is warranted,'' he said. In his remarks, Meyer noted that he considered the economy's NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) to be in the 5 percent to 5-1/4 percent range. But government figures show the unemployment rate in October was at a nearly 30-year low of 4.1 percent. New unemployment figures for November are scheduled for release by the Labor Department on Friday. Economists surveyed by Reuters have forecast the November unemployment rate will hold steady at 4.1 percent. There are widespread reports that employers are finding it difficult to find people to hire and in some cases are using bonuses and other incentives to attract employees. Meyer said there was ''clear evidence that...previously favorable price shocks are dissipating or reversing,'' adding to the risks of higher inflation. He said the U.S. central bank must be forward-looking in setting policy. He said the last interest rate rise on Nov. 16 -- the third increase this year -- was aimed at being preemptive rather than simply taking back three rate easings in 1998. Meyer said rising rates of productivity had greatly benefited the long-running U.S. expansion, helping curb price rises while output gained, but said there still were limits to how much could be expected before inflation set in. He said ''an unexpectedly sharp run-up in equity prices'' was fueling domestic demand as the stock market boom boosted consumer spending and reduced the cost of capital for new business investment. He said virtually everyone had failed to foresee the stock market's surge in prices and added that he was unable to say whether or not higher equity prices were justified by fundamental changes in the economy. (My note: This last statement is incredible if read in the context of the post Fed. rate market rally. What the hell did they think was going to happen? The market read the neutral bias as a green light. The discount rate hike did not change that perception). 18:23 11-30-99

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (10164)	12/1/1999 8:09:00 AM
From: Allan Harris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Here's one to watch: eMerge Interactive is a leading business-to-business electronic commerce company providing content, community, and transaction services to create an online marketplace for the cattle industry. Why? A head's up was given for PACW in this post a month ago: Message 11794237 ICGE traded at 20 it's first day, now 168; USIT traded at 10 it's first day, now at 35; PACW, subject of the above post, traded at 16 it's first day and four weeks later is at 25. What do they all have in common? They are all partner companies of SFE, Safeguard Scientifics, a company I repeatedly mention to this thread. In a few weeks, eMerge will be brought out by Safeguard and if you can get by the cattle thing, another opportunity will be presented to profit from Safegaurd's excellent management team. They do all the due diligence, nurture and incubate these companies then bring them public with well entrenched business plans and management. It is a way to participate in the IPO market and not chase the dot.com of the day that may end up being nothing but market cap in the end. These are real, viable, operating companies with a big sugar daddy making sure it's got clean underwear and prepaid calling cards for their first time away from home. E-commerce cattle business? You gotta break a few eggs... A