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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (55737)	12/1/1999 10:41:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

JQP - re: Oil, inflation & the mindset on the Street here James Cramer of TheStreet.Com & being a hedge fund manager who is "very, very" in tune to the mindset on the Street made a comment on Oil here of late. His comment wasn't itself very complex,or even that negative on the Oilpatch. But as he does not specialize in the Oilpatch - and he ususally goes with the momenteum moves by the hedge fund community following them both in & out of the 'Patch; his comments are very indicative of the general mindset on the Street concerning Oils. His comment here is merely a bit dismissive of a stark real probability on the price of crude oil, but his absence in the oilpatch and his absence of any sign of viewing this weakness in the Oilpatch, or cyclicals as a buying opp speaks to the sentiment held by the hedge funds here. <<Sharp1025 asks: Will Oil hit $30 a barrel this year? Creme_Delacramer: No, I don't think so. That would do real damage to the stock market. >> The shift of momenteum money out of the oilpatch and into the NASDQ & the momenteum plays was also accompanied by heavy shorting of the oilpatch stocks - especially E&P's as a play that crude prices will not be sustained and on top of the fall in Nat Gas Prices. The time to buy is when this sentiment is at its peak and when the momenteum crowd has totally ignored the sector. Per Cramer's comments - that $30 crude would be very damaging to the markets - once the outlook shifts to $30 crude becoming a reality - the rotational shift will flip back from tech to oils. Imho, that tide is just now beginning to shift. The NASDQ & many mo-mo stocks look a little toppy. There are lots of substantial short term profits to be taken here; they will not just sit and watch them vanish. The Oilpatch here, if crude sustains - is sitting as a glaring valuation anomaly if the "Street" senses they were wrong on crude prices - which they are. This week & next will be the turning point for both Crude prices & potentially Nat Gas prices (if the weather cooperates a bit) and the NASDQ & momenteum stocks. We should see the shorts here cover and also see the beginning of some rotation back into the oilpatch. One thing that I can not and will not ignore; is that I simply do NOT see the peak of Oilpatch prices being early September - and not having an end of year - winter breakout. ... if it does, its going to be one hell of a January spike for the oilpatch imho. Either way within the next 6 weeks and we cut & run to new highs imho.