To: Claude Cormier who wrote (8319 ) 12/1/1999 12:05:00 PM From: Jean East Respond to of 77509
Eteignoir ou... ceo of e-harmon.com 'the source for internet investing' ____________________________ 1999.12.01 Correction Direction? ________________ A couple of things seem to be aligning to perhaps trigger a 10% to 25% pullback in the Internet stock sector before year end. We issued a similar warning this past March just before the April pullback. Surprising coming from long-term investors (we don't short). Why could a correction happen? 1) Huge run ups sectorwide, an 'all ships rising with the tide' move that has indiscriminately raised expectations too high we believe. Ships should rise but not life rafts. Example: Yes, I am a believer in Akamai (AKAM) the company but not AKAM the instant gorilla (market cap seems way ahead of itself). Ditto for DSL stocks and B2B stocks of all flavors. The market was there in April and it appears could be there again. Then, as now, we issued a warning beforehand. 2) The piling in of attention-deficit disorder caffeine cowboys into thin floats, looking for a quick return, squeezing themselves. This is the modern equivalent of a throng of hippies piling their way into a 1967 VW Bug after too much Hendrix. 3) Economic growth outpacing Alan Greenspan's abacus (it only counts so high) 4) Chicken Little and the Y2K chicken soup for the soul being served up and the fear that a Y2K event could trigger a tech-stock backlash. 5) Too many weak IPOs diluting the Internet 6) The hype coming from more than a few companies regarding what they represent makes Zapata look like its fax-it-in bid for Excite last year was conservative. On the plus side, ponder that we believe this short-term correction (if it occurs) doesn't represent the underlying value of the Internet. The intrinsic value grows as a primary driver of value and not a result of a window on Wall Street. The fundamental value of the Internet for long-term investors such as ourselves comes from a new observation: the Internet as utility and everything that implies. Utility in commerce, content, communications. Corrections will come and go, utility builds on itself. zero gravity___________ At bookstores everywhere and on the Web at Amazon, bn.com, borders.com Get it now, the guide to Internet and venture capital perfect holiday gift ____________________________________ share this with a friend or colleague! sign up FREE ate-harmon.com Disclaimer: e-harmon.com does not make specific trading recommendations or give individualized market advice. Information contained in e-harmon.com's NetStock! is provided as an information service only. e-harmon.com recommends that you get personal advice from an investment professional before buying or selling stocks or other securities. The securities markets and especially Internet stocks are highly speculative areas for investments and only you can determine what level of risk is appropriate for you. Also, users should be aware that e-harmon.com, its employees and affiliates may own securities that are the subject of reports, reviews or analysis in NetStock!. Although e-harmon.com obtains the information reported herein from what it deems reliable sources, no warranty can be given as to the accuracy or completeness of a