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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (11679)	12/1/1999 3:27:00 PM
From: Tom Ardnij	Respond to of 54805

Lindy, What follows are the latest financial results as reported by Salomon Smith Barney. Salomon Smith Barney ~ October 29, 1999 10/29/99 JDS Uniphase (JDSU $152.43,1-H,Tgt $210.00) Lissa Bogaty --SUMMARY:--JDS Uniphase--Connectors & Other Components Decent upside and signs that the 100% growth pace should continue. Raising estimates and price target to $210 from $130. Reiterating Buy rating. *Emphasis on higher-ASP modules using its own components and lowering manufacturing costs through automation, point to strategy to not only grow with the market, but take a greater share of currently captive production with value proposition. 10/29/99 JDS Uniphase (JDSU $152.43,1-H,Tgt $210.00) Lissa Bogaty --EARNINGS PER SHARE-------------------------------------------------------- FYE 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr Year Actual 06/99 EPS $0.14A $0.16A $0.19A $0.24A $0.74A Previous 06/00 EPS $0.25E $0.25E $0.27E $0.32E $1.09E Current 06/00 EPS $0.29A $0.31E $0.33E $0.35E $1.27E Previous 06/01 EPS $0.37E $0.38E $0.37E $0.44E $1.56E Current 06/01 EPS $0.38E $0.43E $0.47E $0.51E $1.78E Previous 06/02 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $2.50E Current 06/02 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $2.50E Footnotes: 10/29/99 JDS Uniphase (JDSU $152.43,1-H,Tgt $210.00) Lissa Bogaty --FUNDAMENTALS-------------------------------------------------------------- Current Rank........:1H Prior:No Change Price (10/28/99)....:$152.43 P/E Ratio 06/00.....:120.0x Target Price..:$210.00 Prior:130.00 P/E Ratio 06/01.....:85.6x Proj.5yr EPS Grth...:50.0% Return on Eqty 99...:17.2% Book Value/Shr(99)..:3.85 LT Debt-to-Capital(a)0% Dividend............:$N/A Revenue (00)........:1431.50mil Yield...............:N/A% Shares Outstanding..:168.5mil Convertible.........:No Mkt. Capitalization.:25684.5mil Hedge Clause(s).....: Comments............:(a) Data as of the most recently reported quarter. Comments............: 10/29/99 JDS Uniphase (JDSU $152.43,1-H,Tgt $210.00) --OPINION:------------------------------------------------------------------ 1Q00 AHEAD OF FORECAST ON 104% REVENUE GROWTH--EPS UP 107%--RAISING ESTIMATES--RAISING PRICE TARGET TO $210 JDS Uniphase reported earnings last night of $0.29 vs. $0.14 pro forma last year, up 107% on 104% revenue growth. The $0.04 positive surprise was driven 50% from higher-than-expected revenue growth and 50% from a lower tax rate and share count than expected. We suspect that the limited upside on the revenue forecast--104% vs. expectations of 96%--will take a little steam out of the stock, which has been acting like it was anticipating a considerably bigger revenue surprise, pushing the multiple on our old calendar 2000 estimate up to 114 times. But on our new number, it settles back to 102, right in line with the current revenue growth rate, which is where it seems to like to hang out. We expect continued share gains as the stock anticipates what we believe will be further upward earnings revisions, and based on this scenario, we are raising our 12-month price target to $210 from $130. Company guidance tends to be realistic for the current quarter and conservative for those that follow. Currently, our FY2000 and FY2001 estimates forecast 40% EPS growth. Our new price target of $210 is based on our belief that the current growth rate should continue for a while, which we believe justifies the current 100 multiple on forward earnings, but is also based on our published numbers. Upside to estimates would likely result in upside to this target.