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To: Ken Benes who wrote (45472)12/1/1999 5:06:00 PM
From: Terry Swift  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116763
 
Ken:

I don't expect to see systemic Y2K problems until February or March. Cascading breakdowns, like a snowball rolling downhill and getting bigger as it goes, will be the biggest problem, whether they occur in the international banking system, the national power grid, one company receiving corrupted data from another, etc., etc. Individual problems that multiply as they are passed through the system will be the biggest problems and they won't begin to show up for a few weeks after 1/1/2000. There will be a few isolated problems on 1/3/2000, but for the most part, that day (and week) will be a non-event. Don't be lulled into complacency by the first week in January.

IMO, the real problems won't show up until spring, 2000 or even next summer. Summer power usage is far greater than in the winter.

Thousands of individual small failures will result in a very huge systemic problem as we get a few months into 2000.

I expect oil imports to drop as we get into 2000 due to Y2K problems in the Middle East, Mexico, and Venezuela but we won't know that on January 3rd. Ditto, any other item we import from a country that is not Y2K compliant. Italy is a basket case; their Y2K czar has said publicly he expects the economy to collapse. We are very dependent on imports. There is no way our economy can be an island of prosperity or stability while the rest of the world's economies fall apart. Japan is in bad shape. PC makers have been looking for alternate suppliers for months. Y2K will have a huge impact on our economy (and stock market) but it won't be evident on January 3rd. Pray for the best, prepare for the worst.

Terry



To: Ken Benes who wrote (45472)12/1/1999 6:47:00 PM
From: Terry Swift  Respond to of 116763
 
On the other hand, it could get very interesting in the last week in December. You can find the article about the National Emergency declaration on World Net Daily web site. This is from Y2K Newswire.

Terry

¸ 1998-1999 Arial Marketing, Inc. All rights reserved. www.y2knewswire.com

Thanks to a breaking story published by WorldNetDaily, the Y2K-aware members of

the U.S. population now know that the President has plans to declare a national

emergency on December 28th. ( The rest of the country still doesn't know about this

because the mainstream press has so far refused to report it. )

This declaration comes with one condition: that Y2K problems exceed the capacity of

local emergency response resources. With FEMA revealing it can only handle 56

simultaneous problems nationwide, it appears this condition will be met very quickly.

Whether the day is actually the 28th is questionable. Now that the cat's out of the bag,

they will likely change the day to further discredit WorldNetDaily and other

Y2K-focused news organizations. Or they may change the name. Instead of calling it a

"national emergency" the President might declare a "Y2K response week" or

something similar, making it sound like a holiday. ( That will explain the bank

closings... )

Either way, the message is now clear: some type of emergency or disaster may be

declared, granting government authorities new "rights" to bring in the military to handle

Y2K problems. Under a national emergency, of course, the executive orders already

in place grant the federal government full control over all supplies: food, medicine,

vehicles, equipment, guns, ammunition, even labor. In other words, under this

scenario, you can be legally be asked -- and required -- to turn over your "stuff." It's all

for the good of the country, of course, to feed the people who refused to prepare.

This, by itself, is disturbing enough. Add to it the fact that the government is still not

telling the people about these plans and you have an even bigger problem. By

brainwashing the public into not preparing, the government is actually creating a

situation that could lead to fear, panic, looting and other problems that justify the

declaration of a national emergency. They've created this situation -- and now it

appears they might use it to further expand government powers over the people.

There's nothing like an "emergency" to get the public to give up more rights.

Even more disturbing: the fact that the government apparently knows this is not a

"three-day snowstorm scenario." If Y2K is solved -- if it's no big deal -- why do we need

plans to declare a national emergency? Why have plans to deploy troops?

Fortunately, according to this article, the Dept. of Defense has urged field

commanders to be "very cautious" about deploying troops to help with local Y2K

emergencies. They are told not to interfere unless there is an immediate threat to life

or property. However, it seems clear that condition will likely be met very early on.

There's one saving point here: if Y2K is, indeed, no big deal, none of this is likely to

occur. If the problem is as small as they claim it to be, there will be fewer than 50

problems, no troops needed, no terrorism, no rioting, and no national emergency. This

is the desired outcome. Pray for this outcome; even if it means the Y2K-aware

people have been wrong. ...even if it means you have extra food sitting around on

January 2!

But if we're right, this now means things are far more serious than we thought. Even a

medium-case scenario is likely to stretch emergency response resources to the limit

very quickly, resulting in a Presidential declaration of a national emergency. And under

that order, anything goes. Nothing is off the books: gun confiscation, food

confiscation, the suspension of elections, confiscation of gold and cash... you name it.

It's all legal. In fact, we can't blame Clinton for a lot of this: these were legal, too, under

many former administrations, including Reagan and Bush. Those Presidents, however,

were probably far more reluctant to actually invoke emergency orders.

WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN

Frankly, the invocation of a "national emergency," if it happens, is probably very bad

news. We urge all government officials reading this to urge your higher-ups to back

away from this declaration. Why? Because it will be the final sign needed by every

hard-core terrorist, anti-government group or "freedom fighter" to launch an all-out

assault against government troops. It could actually spark a civil war or even a

military coup.

Here's why: Clinton is widely distrusted by nearly half of Americans -- and especially

by the military. Many people are familiar with the idea that under a national

emergency, all rights are suspended, and most thinking people are at least a little

uncomfortable transforming Clinton into a dictator ( which the declaration would

effectively do ) . Cries for civil unrest, open rebellion, and even outright resistance would

be loud, indeed.

All this would only create more chaos and potential bloodshed. We don't need this.

Y2K Newswire is in favor of peaceful government reform, not gun battles. Yet if

Clinton declares a national emergency, it could actually motivate people to take up

arms.

Make no mistake: there are probably a million Americans -- armed Americans -- who

are close to this point right now. A declaration of "national emergency" and the

unleashing of federal troops onto civilian streets would be the final straw for these

folks. They would see this as an invading force or an attempted overtaking of the

People by federal troops.

And the very first incident of bloodshed -- where federal troops blow away civilians in an

armed clash -- would unleash even more anti-government sentiments. We're literally

talking about the chemistry for a civil war here.

That's why this is potentially so dangerous and why Y2K Newswire urges the federal

informants reading this to urge the White House to avoid a national emergency

declaration. This is one case where the government overreaction can be far more

dangerous than any public overreaction.