Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Petz who wrote (81691)	12/1/1999 6:32:00 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 1573073

Hi John: I respect your comments. My Jan. and Apr. price targets of $48.25 and $63 are absolutely optimistic given AMD's close today of $28 (approx}. My optimism is premised upon: (i) AMD's positioning in the fash memory segment with expected 70% qtr to qtr growth in flash bit production in Y2000 owing to additional capacity resulting from shift of microprocessor production to Dresden. (ii) AMD's unbelievably successful launching and the tremendous upside potential in revenues, given, the point presented earlier in the day on this thread that the Athlon, "the better mousetrap at the better price", has yet to tap the corporate market. (iii) Incremental production costs for the Athlon in moving up the MHz gradient would seem to be far less than those any visible competitor is currently experiencing, if ease in going from 500MHz to 750MHz is a reasonable indicator. (iv) Currently, both technical and fundamental indicators support a significant upward revaluation in the price of AMD shares as the flash memory segment, alone, could support today's close of $28. (v) Everybody loves a championr. When it becomes apparent to the general marketplace that the Athlon is the champion you and I know it is, look for that bandwagon effect which will translate into multiples of $28. (vi) Above average daily volumes since Nov. 11 indicate that you and I are not the only ones who appreciate that the Athlon is the champion of the "here and now". It looks like it's getting ready to run again and if it starts running, it has the "value" potential, like many techs before, to run further and faster than many imagine possible. (vii) Last but not least, anyone scrutinizing AMD's turnaround this quarter, if they roll up their sleeves cannot discount the possibility that AMD revenues may exceed $1 billion this quarter.

To: Petz who wrote (81691)	12/1/1999 7:14:00 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573073

Hi John: Just one more item...99Q3 revenues were $670 million. On Nov. 11, management (Ben Anixter) stated that 99Q4 revenues would comfortably exceed $800 million (i.e. 15% increase). I suspect that would be a conservative estimate, and given that Nov. 11 is not even at the halfway point of 99Q4, and given that AMD news since Nov. 11 can only be construed positively, it would not be surprising if $800 million in revenues is a significant understatement. $1 billion in 99Q4 revenues anyone?