Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BelowTheCrowd who wrote (5164)	12/1/1999 6:58:00 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10293

Michael, Walgreens has about 3,000 stores and Zicam is sold in between 40,000 and 50,000 stores nationwide. I appreciate the feedback from your local Walgreens, but I don't think this is representative of sales overall. I agree that sales will ebb and flow but it's too early to conclude if Zicam will be a success or a failure, especially based on an informal survey of a few stores. I think that it is more likely to be a success because it works. Of course, nobody has to take my word for this. Anybody can try it and see for themselves. Some people on this thread have called Zicam a "fad". The question that I would ask if I shorted GUMM based on this belief is how much will Gum Tech sell and how high will the stock trade before investors believe that it is a fad? The stock will probably rally in anticipation of Q4 99 and Q1 00 sales, and if it turns out not to be a fad, I think that it will keep rallying. This is the chance that one takes when they short a stock based on their belief that a product is a fad and it turns out to be the next "Advil". Personally, I don't see how a product that works as well as Zicam and targets such a large market could turn out to be a fad, nor has anyone who claimed this offered any supporting logic. As I opined when Wexler started shorting GUMM between 11 and 13, it was too early. I still think that it's too early because sales in the US are just starting to ramp up and international sales will start soon. The second clinical studies are due out at any time, and if they are positive, the stock will probably rally much more than it did when AJIC agreed to publish the first study. This is especially true if prevention is proven. The company also said that they hope to close a joint venture for nicotine gum by the end of the year, and this joint venture has the propensity to be even bigger than Zicam. There may be a time to short GUMM, but I don't think now is it. Regards, Dan