To: Bill Harmond who wrote (85883 ) 12/1/1999 8:30:00 PM From: Glenn D. Rudolph Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
Business-to-consumer Internets could slip-Blodget NEW YORK, Dec 1 (Reuters) - There could be a first-quarter pullback in business-to-consumer Internet stocks, Merrill Lynch analyst Henry Blodget said on Wednesday. The well-known Internet analyst said the sector is currently still enjoying part of a run sparked in August as investors anticipated a strong holiday shopping season. That strength could go on for another month "or so," Blodget said in a research note. "At some point, however, we expect to see the group pull back as investors focus increasingly on (the first quarter), increasing competitive pressures, and a lack of catalysts as we move out into the spring," he said. Blodget pointed to a gradual slowdown in the number of new U.S. users coming online citing a report by Media Metrix, which measures traffic on the Internet. Such a slowdown "makes sense," he said, given the high penetration of 75 million to 80 million U.S. people already online. The business-to-consumer sector is also "the most mature" compared with the other two Internet sectors as it moves from what he called "hyper growth" into long-term growth. Blodget structures his view of the industry into three major sectors: business to consumer, infrastructure companies, and business-to-business firms. Long-term, he said investor attention and stock action is shifting away from business-to-consumer in 1998 to infrastructure companies in 1999 and business-to-business companies in 2000, he said. Although the business-to-consumer sector still has "enormous growth" left, he said, "as the growth rates slow, we continue to believe the spoils will go to the few, not the many," Blodget said. "In our opinion, the gradual slowdown in new U.S. users could be likened to the loss of power in one engine on a 747 (which has four) -- the plane can still climb, but not as steeply or quickly as before," he said. On top of the slowdown in traffic, he said, the number of public Internet companies has also surged, sending competitive pressures higher. He said concerns are highest for weak "e-tailers", online retailers which may have gotten a free ride along with stronger counterparts amid enthusiasm about U.S. shoppers buying presents on computers instead of in shopping malls. He did not name any such companies. Blodget said his focus in the sector is on companies showing gains in market share as well as strong international operations. He cited Yahoo! Inc <YHOO.O>, America Online Inc. <AOL.N>, DoubleClick Inc. <DCLK.O> and Amazon.com Inc <AMZN.O>. Even those picks could be subject to the potential pullback. "We think these stocks will go down less and recover faster if a first quarter pullback occurs," he said. REUTERS Rtr 14:19 12-01-99