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Strategies & Market Trends : Cents and Sensibility - Kimberly and Friends' Consortium -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fmv503 who wrote (37151)	12/2/1999 11:38:00 AM
From: Jim B	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 108040

buying KNOT IPO $13... not as good as DMRC.. but certainly worth more than $13 -- $20 probably short term target on this one -- especially since there aren't a whole lot of things taking off right now... maybe the best performers will be the new IPOs ; DMRC might get too expensive too fast for some.. so they'll come looking at KNOT jim

To: fmv503 who wrote (37151)	12/2/1999 11:39:00 AM
From: BRea	Respond to of 108040

JCDA running back to the mid 20's. +3 1/4 EOM

To: fmv503 who wrote (37151)	12/2/1999 11:40:00 AM
From: Kimberly Lee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 108040

loaded up on KNOT 12 1/2, 5/8, 3/4..Category leader, First Boston's premiere IPO today; CNBC Power Lunch interview today. DD to follow

To: fmv503 who wrote (37151)	12/2/1999 11:41:00 AM
From: vagabond	Respond to of 108040

PFSW L-2 showing 36-ish, MTLK around 22. Nothing yet on DMRC or MCAF. Vagabond

To: fmv503 who wrote (37151)	12/2/1999 11:44:00 AM
From: Kimberly Lee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 108040

Notable IPO of the day, CS First Boston's KNOT Expected: Dec. 2 The Knot (Nasdaq:KNOT) Shares: 3,500,000 Amount: $28,000,000 Price $10 Lead Underwriter: Credit Suisse First Boston --> Summary The Knot is the leading online wedding site, offering articles, online chats, gift registries, and links to wedding vendors in 52 markets. It receives most of its revenue from advertising and sponsorships (74% for the six months ending June 30, 1999) and the rest from e-commerce product sales. Perhaps The Knot's strongest point is its integrated strategy: it provides retail sales directly to consumers; it collects in-depth demographic information for a key advertising target (soon-to-be married couples); it links consumers to local brick-and-mortar businesses (limousine services, florists, etc.) with real live sales forces; it creates an online community with chats, message boards, and personalized web pages for brides and grooms; and it provides wedding planning content (checklists, budget guides, articles, etc.) that keep its users coming back. The Knot is not after small potatoes: an independent study found wedding industry retail sales to be worth about $45 billion per year, as compared to the toy industry at $27 billion. One important sign that The Knot has strong prospects is that one of its big investors is America Online (NYSE:AOL) with an 11% stake. AOL exclusively markets The Knot on its own site and several of its other web properties. Another advantage for The Knot is its principal investor: QVC (Nasdaq:CMCSK), the home shopping company, holds approximately 47% of the company. QVC has extensive experience in direct retail sales and marketing, as well as contacts with suppliers all over the world. And, like AOL, QVC can use its media properties to market The Knot. The Knot lost approximately $1.5 million in FY 98 on revenues of approximately $1 million. It has approximately 100 employees and is based in New York City. --> Investment Analysis There are several factors leading to our position that The Knot will be a strong performer, including: 1. Follow the Leader. What seemed to be a trend when it comes to Internet stocks is now an unwritten rule on Wall Street - the market leader in any web sector performs strongly. The markets know that the wedding industry is big and The Knot is the leader. Simply following the leader when it comes to net stocks has reaped big rewards for many investors in the past, and we don't expect it to be any different in this case. 2. AOL's Seal of Approval. Although AOL holds only an 11% stake in The Knot versus the 47% stake held by QVC, AOL's marketing power on the web is not to be underestimated. With approximately half of all Americans accessing the Internet through AOL and AOL exclusively marketing The Knot, it will be hard for any other online wedding company to knock The Knot from first place. 3. Weddings Are Big Business. As we've already pointed out, weddings are big business in America, yielding retail sales of $45 billion. Investors are constantly looking for companies that can take profitable brick-and-mortar businesses and move them online, thereby capturing a big piece of the pie from more traditional companies. The Knot seems poised to do just that - by providing one-stop-shopping for brides, grooms, and guests and by positioning itself as the online link between consumers and local brick-and-mortar wedding businesses, The Knot could take a big piece of the massive wedding industry. 4. Advertising Revenue Strategy. Investors are becoming increasingly skeptical of e-commerce companies that grow their sales revenues on tiny margins: when will they be in a position to turn strong profits? The Knot does have an e-commerce strategy, but its principle revenue source is advertising and promotions, making it less vulnerable to competitors who try to sell their products at cut-rate margins. This means that The Knot can compete on price when it comes to e-commerce sales, such as its gift registry, while growing its revenues through ad sales. This should help allow it to maintain its position on top as the number one wedding site.