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Biotech / Medical : Elan Corporation, plc (ELN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: George the Greek who wrote (742)	12/2/1999 1:32:00 PM
From: All Mtn Ski	Respond to of 10345

Contrarian view: Downers The European drug sector doesn't hold much promise for investors in 2000 said John Murphy, London-based pharmaceutical analyst at Goldman Sachs. The sector's down 17 percent year-to-date, and investors should take advantage of "mergers and acquisition inspired strength" to reduce holdings in the area, Murphy said. For one thing, the relative valuations on European drug stocks are near their 20 year highs and the companies aren't coming up with the right number of new drugs to keep growth up to speed, he said. For the average sized drug maker to achieve double digit top line growth it needs to come out with two and a half new drugs per year, Murphy said. But the industry average is just 1.2. "There are very few drugs coming through of any size," he said. "We are not overly impressed with pipelines." Also many of those drugs already in the market are fading out. In the $100 billion U.S. drug market for instance, 20 percent is subject to patent expiration in the next five years. Murphy said there are three stocks that buck the trends in Europe that he likes best; AstraZeneca PLC (AZN: news, msgs), Switzerland's Roche AG, and Aventis, the company born through the merger of France's Rhone-Poulenc and Germany's Hoechst. Murphy has a $51 or 3150 pence price target on AstraZeneca stock and says the company will beat expectations. Roche for its part, is gaining momentum and the shares should hit $136 or 21,000 Swiss francs, he said. cbs.marketwatch.com

To: George the Greek who wrote (742)	12/2/1999 3:34:00 PM
From: William Partmann	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10345

I can only speak for myself and what I read. There is a present fear that the House and Senate might try to pass legislation affecting health care and directly impacting the drug companies. They will certainly talk about it which will make investor uneasy. Personally, the likelihood of that body agreeing on any major bill in an election year seems unlikely. Nonetheless, the sector has not been too dynamic for sometime now other than those M&A situations. I opine that once the January-February tech rally loses steam the drugs will be the next in the rotation. I hope at least. Until then, I see Elan travelling a different path because it has already corrected (for a year now) and it has fat pipeline. Only time will tell. Good luck to all. Bill